ONE44 Analytics

SP 500 Futures & Gold Analysis 3/8/26

Nick Ehrenberg -

The charts as always are key to this analysis.

GOLD

GCJ26

Gold has continued to hold the 38.2% retracement on all the setbacks keeping the trend positive.

ONE44 38.2% rule,

The 38.2% retracement is the single most important one and is the level we use for the "Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement.
A sub set of guidelines with the 38.2% level are for when the market fails to hold this level and when the reaction from it either fails to make a new high/low, or makes a slightly lower low/higher high and gets right back above the previous high/low.
On the failure to stop at 38.2% it tells us....

Even the late January plunge held 38.2% back to the 5/15/25 low at 4735.00, this was also 23.6% back to the 10/6/23 low. It did trade well below this level and had one close below it (we always want to see 2 to confirm the violation) and the next day was right back above it. On the rally from there it held 38.2% on 2/17/26 at 4881.00, which was also a major Gann square and the rally from there hit 78.6% back to the ATH at 5374.00. As we mention in the SP 500 update this is where a lot of Bull markets can end. The setback from 5374.00 has hit 38.2% back to the 2/2/26 low at 5052.00 and this will be the key level for the week.

Use 5052.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 3/2/26 high at 5342.00. A failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 5532.00 and 5752.40.

Below it, a failure to hold 5052.00 will turn the short term trend negative and the short term target is 61.8% of the same move at 4815.00. The longer term target is 78.6% the other way at 4644.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. There is also the 4649.00 major Gann square for added support.

S&P 500 Futures

ESM26
The last two highs after the ATH was made on 1/28/26 were stopped by a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, on 2/11/26 it was 6985.00 and then on 2/25/26 at 6966.00. We know following the ONE44 78.6% rule that,

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.
When a market does react to 78.6% it usually creates wide swings that go through all the other retracements, this either happens in very large trading ranges or very small, it is also the level hit most often when the market is reacting from 23.6% and 38.2% and fails to make the new high/low. This is where a lot of Bull runs start and end.

The first setback from the 2/11/26 high hit 78.6% the other way on 2/17/26 at 6808.00 and that sent it 78.6% the other way again on 2/25/26 at 6966.00. We will now see if the break from 6966.00 (78.6%) will be the end of the Bull run for now. Friday's close was just below the 6752.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the week.

Use 6752.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Above it, getting right back above 6752.00 will give us a short term target of 78.6% back to the ATH at 6973.00. The long term target is the next cluster of major Gann squares at 7228.00. Any rally that can't get above 38.2% at 6837.00 is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. With any new low you will have to reset the retracements back to the ATH.

Below it, the short term target area is 6636.00 to 6594.00, this is 78.6% back to the 11/21/25 low, the 200 day average (6608.00) and the 6594.00 major Gann square. The longer term target is 23.6% back to the 2025 low at 6520.00. With the current volatility you will have to watch for a trade down to 23.6% at 6520.00 and then a close above the 200 day at 6608.00, provided this does happen it could be the end of the break for now. The long term target is 6226.00, this is 23.6% back to the 2022 low and 38.2% back to the 2025 low.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.