In this post I will show how the Fibonacci retracements based on the ONE44 rules and guidelines work.
Starting with the September 2021 low when it hit 61.8% on the 13th, following the 61.8% rule, we will be looking for 61.8% the other way and this was achieved on 10/12/21 at 132.05. The setback from it could only get to 38.2% at 130.35 on 10/22/21 and once they took out 61.8% the next setback held 38.2% again on 11/1/21. Now as is the rule after holding 38.2% it went for new highs for the move up to 138.20 on 11/29/21.
The first setback from 138.20 could only go 23.6% of the contract high and low at 134.15 on 12/20/21. After making a new high on 1/3/22 it retreated again to 23.6% of that same move at 134.40 on 1/24/22, this led to the new contract high on 2/10/22. The break from that high went down to 38.2% back to the contract low on 3/4/22 at 133.50, this is also the long term swing point. The rally from it first hit 61.8% on 3/30/22 and the break from there went back to test the long term swing point and held at 78.6% on 4/6/22. The next rally took it back to the contract high again. One part of the ONE44 38.2% rule is, failing to make a new high, or only making a slightly higher high should send the market down to 61.8% of that same move and this would be 128.40, this is the longer term target. So far hit has come back to the long term swing point again on 5/9/22. When a market gets a new direction it should start to hold 38.2% on the rallies, just as it held them on the way up. The rally on 5/3/22 hit 38.2% and that sent it to the long term swing point.
As for now, watch 38.2% at 136.50, if the next rally from the long term swing point can only get back to there look for new lows and the longer term target. Above 136.50 look for it to go for 78.6% at 140.15.
We don't cover Cattle regularly, however we wanted to show one of the methods we use in our Grain Weekly update for Soybeans, Meal and Oil, Wheat and Corn. You can become a Premium Member here
Sign up for our Free newsletter here.
This is our latest video on using Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. It deals with the Grain market. Even if you do not trade Grains it is worth watching. All the rules and guidelines work in ALL markets. We also have videos for other markets on our YouTube channel.
FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.