Bitcoin and the 78.6% rule
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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
Back to the short term, a failure to make a new low on the break from 38.2% (44,750) should send it up to 61.8% of the same move and this is 47,800. The other thing to watch, if it does not make a new low is the 78.6% level, this is the low this morning and as the second part of the 78.6% rule says, "This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start." Again, this is the short term view.
As you can see on the chart below the break from 38.2% on 9/24/21 did not make a new low and it held 78.6%, thus ending the down move and starting the next Bull run in the short term.
When we move out to the longer term it is now at 78.6% of the 9/7/21 high and 9/22/21 low, this is 50,150. The first part of the 78.6% rule is, "any market that holds 78.6% should go 78.6% of where it just came from." This makes the target on a break from here 42,180. As we always say, "you have to watch all the retracements on any moves to see just how weak, or strong the market is", and if it can only get back to 38.2% at 46,350, it will keep the current leg up positive and you can look for new highs for the move.
Failing to get any kind of break from 50,150 and a solid close above it, should send the market up to 57,150, this is 78.6% of the ATH and June low. There is also a major Gann square in that area at 57,700.
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