This meteoric rise in Bitcoin from 3/13/20 low at 3808.00 has produced few setbacks and the ones that they did have either came right into a Fibonacci retracement or held above 38.2% to keep the trend intact.
The first chart is a daily starting with the 3/13/20 low.
From the 3/13/20 low the first setback on 3/30/20 held 38.2%, by doing this it told us we have the possible making of a new trend. The second setback 4/16/20 was only able to get back to 23.6% of the move, showing an even stronger trend. The one day break on 5/11/20, again held 23.6%, it did trade below it, but the close is the key. (1 close below is acceptable). The next rally took it to new highs for the move and the setback from there held 23.6% again. The first time was on 9/4/20and it traded on this level for a month before the rally really started going. The next $9000 move up had another one day setback and this one was on 11/26/20. This time it could not even get back to 23.6% of the whole move up at 15,900, this was also 38.2% back to the 9/4/20 low. Keeping the market extremely powerful.
We now have to go to the 2hr chart to show the extreme move.
Starting with the 11/26/20 low as a base for the retracements (because we are so far away from any that go back to the 3/13/20 low), the setback on 12/21/20 held 23.6%. The next break held above 23.6% to the low, but hit 38.2% back to the 12/21/20 low and on to new highs. Now comes one of the biggest breaks ever and they go right to 23.6% back to the 9/4/20 and just above 38.2% back to the 11/26/20 before taking off again. This was on 1/4/21.
The next run up just shows more of the same and how important the Fibonacci levels are to the trend, this being the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements. All of our rules/guidelines can be found HERE.
On the run up from the 1/4/21 low the first setback after making new highs was 23.6% to it, on 1/6/21. With the new ATH at 40,296 the "ONE HOUR" break from there spiked below 23.6% at 37,500, but quickly got right back above, it could not even get 38.2% back of the tightest range keeping the market extremely strong.
When this market does turn over, you will see the exact same thing happening on any rally and that is staying below the 38.2% retracements to keep the trend negative.
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These are our latest videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements. Even if you do not trade the market covered the rules and guidelines are the same, as we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of all markets.