We have had these targets since the beginning of the year and we have been posting updates on Barchart and the ONE44 Analytics website about the levels they just hit. In our latest update on May 11th titled "Bitcoin and Ethereum approaching our long term targets" We gave you what to watch for when and if they did indeed hit those targets. Now that they have, here is what to look for now.
In Bitcoin and Ethereum we will watch the retracements to see if the bottom is in for now after hitting major levels. With 28,000 being 61.8%, the long term target will be 61.8% the other way, this is 52.100. To see just how strong the market is on any rally we can retrace back to the 3/28/22 high and the ATH, using the first one, 23.6% is 31,000, they hit this Friday and if this is all it can rally, it's bad news. Above this is 38.2% of the same move at 34,380, however more importantly is 23.6% of the ATH at 36,000 with a major Gann square at 36,300. The long term trend will not turn positive until 38.2% at 42,150 is taken out.
Failing to hold the 28,000 area should send it to 78.6% of the ATH and the 2018 low at 17,000.
The 1900.00 level was also 61.8% of the ATH and 2018 low and the long term target is 61.8% back at 3670.00. The first test on a rally from here will be the combination of retracements between 2430.00 and 2475.00, the first is 38.2% back to the 4/4/22 high and the second is 23.6% back to the ATH. Failing to get above this area is very negative and you can look for new lows. To turn the long term trend positive it will need to take out 38.2% at 2940.00.
Failing to hold 1900.00 should send it down to 78.6% of the ATH and 2018 low at 1100.00.
For Ethereum and Bitcoin,
If the turn higher from here is real, it should start to hold 38.2% on any setbacks. They have not had a big enough move up to start that yet.
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This is our latest video on using Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. It deals with the Grain market. Even if you do not trade Grains it is worth watching. All the rules and guidelines work in ALL markets. We also have videos for other markets on our YouTube channel.