We are going to review Bitcoin and Ethereum in the same way we follow the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines and W. D. Gann's "Law of Vibration" in our Weekly Grain Update.
The level that it traded around for the last two months of 2022 was 78.6% of the ATH and ATL, it was also a major Gann square (16,888).
The first setback on the rally from that area (2/13/23) held above 38.2% of the leg up at 20,805, this was also a major Gann square and the first positive thing it had done in a long time. The rally from that area took it to the next major Gann square at 24,815.
It failed to get a close above this level to say it should go to the next one above and not doing so tells us to look for the previous one at 20,805.
Using the retracements and the ONE44 38.2% rule, we know that any market that is going to keep its current trend intact should hold 38.2% and this is 21,500.
Provided they hold 21,500 you can look for a rally that takes it to new highs for the current rally and then the area of 28,00 to 28,891, this is 23.6% back to the ATH, 38.2% back to the 3/28/22 high and a major Gann square. The long term swing point is up at 35,800 and until this level is taken out the long term trend remains negative.
Failing to hold 21,500 will give us a downside target area of 17,500 to 16,888, this is 78.6% back to the 11/21/22 low and a major Gann square.
The Low on 11/10/22 held the 78.6% retracement of the 6/20/22 low and 8/15/22 high at 1110.00. The rally from there took it up to 61.8% of the 8/15/22 high and 11/10/22 low at 1670.00 on 1670.00. Normally on a setback from a 61.8% retracement we would be watching for 61.8% retracement the other way, however as we always say, "we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is" and in this case it held 38.2% of the current rall at 1470.00. The rally from it took it to new highs.
It is currently back below the 61.8% level of 1670.00 and it will need to hold 38.2% back with the new high at 1485.00 to keep the current trend intact.
Provided it holds 1485.00 the target will be new highs for the move up and 78.6% of the 8/15/22 high and 11/10/22 low at 1830.00. Above 1830.00 the long term target is the long term swing point at 2410.00, this 38.2% back to the ATH. Failing to hold 1470.00 will give us a target area of 61.8% at 1330.00 and the 1295.00 major Gann square.
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