ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements and Gann squares.
You can get all the rules and guidelines to the Fibonacci retracements on our website.
When using the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines we know that any market that is going to continue the current trend must stay above 38.2%. This is applicable in the long and short term.
Another guideline when using the Fibonacci retracements is that when the 38.2% level is from a very large range as it is in Corn (320.50 to 638.00) you can see large sweeping moves back and forth that go 61.8% and 78.6%, but still keep the long term trend and target in place.
Today's low has hit the long term swing point for the fourth time, this is 518.00 and it is 38.2% of the contract high and low. The first time was on 5/25/21, the rally from that took it to 78.6% at 610.00, it had one close above it before going back to the long term swing point on 6/24/21. The second rally from there went to 78.6% of the move down at 608.00 and the break from it went back to the long term swing point again on 7/9/21. The next rally from 518.00 took it to 61.8% on 8/12/21 at 582.00 and the break from here sent it to 518.00 again today.
As long as it can continue to close above 518.00 the long term trend is positive and it should go for new highs for the contract. The long term target remains at 810.00. It can have one close below 518.00, however the next day should be back well above it. One thing to watch for is it trades down to the 200 day moving average at 503.00 and then closes above 518.00 this would be a very positive sign and a good rally should follow. As always we will watch all the retracements on any move and a failure to get above 38.2% at 555.00 would be a negative sign. With a couple closes below 518.00, the next target becomes 61.8% at 442.00.
The second chart below is an hourly and in it you can see how the latest break from 61.8% on 8/12/21 held below 38.2% in the move down keeping the short term negative.
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