January Soy Meal
From our last update,
The low on 7/6/22 held the long term swing point of 3,480, this was 38.2% of the contract high on 3/23/22 and the 2020 low. Following the ONE44 38.2% rule,
"Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement.
As long as this level holds, the long term target is new highs for the year.
As you can see on the chart each of the lows on the current rally from the long term swing point (3480.00) has held key retracements. On 8/4/22 it was 61.8% and on 8/16/22 it was 38.2% showing a market getting stronger. Then again it held above 38.2% on 8/31/22 to keep the trend very positive.
After making a new high for the run up on 9/8/22 that fell just short of the 3930.00 major Gann square, it could only setback to 23.6% the next day, keeping the market extremely positive.
To keep this market extremely positive we would want to see a setback that held 23.6% again, this time it is 3930.00 and it is also a major Gann square. Provided it holds, the short term target is new highs for the year and the 4171.00 major Gann square. The long term target is the 4446.00 major Gann square.
The current trend will not turn negative until 38.2% of the rally is taken out, right now this is 3830.00. This level will have to be adjusted on any new high.
If you like this kind of analysis and trade the U.S. Grains, give us a look Grains Weekly update.
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