Long term view

The lows made in September of this year were at 38.2% back to the 2018 low, this level was 330.00. This is the long term swing point now. They traded below it a few times in that month, but had only one close below. We always want to see two closes to confirm a violation of a retracement, especially when dealing with multi year highs and lows. The 38.2% rule states that they should go on to new highs from here to keep the trend very positive. As always though, we will watch all of the retracements on any rally from there. The high made on 10/23/20 hit 61.8% back to the 9/2/20 high, this is 420.00. The 61.8% rule states that any market that holds 61.8% should go 61.8% of where it just came from, so the target on a break from here is 353.00. For the longer term, as long as they continue to stay above the long term swing point of 330.00 we will be looking for the long term target, this is 38.2% of the all-time high and low at 592.00. Once they can get a couple close's above 78.6% at 450.00 we feel the long term target should be reached in short order.

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