Stanley Black & Decker/ SWK
We believe that the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of all markets and in these weekly examples we give educational and actionable information.
As usual we will go back to show you where it has come from and what key levels they held first, then bring you up to date.
Here is a video link for this update..
The first chart below is the weekly retracing back to the All-time low. This shows how important it is to know where the extreme retracements are at all times. The break that started in September of 2018 up at 155.22 went to 38.2% of the ATH and ATL at that time. This was 113.50, they did trade below it, but quickly got back above it. The reaction Based on the ONE44 Fibonacci rules/Guidelines should be the same as if it held perfectly and this is "any market that holds 38.2% keeps the trend intact and it should go for new highs. They failed to make that new high and based on our rules/guidelines,not making a new high should send it back to 61.8% of the same move. This happened in March of 2020 at 74.00. Now we will take a look at the break from failing to make that new high and update.
The trade between 10/25/2018 and 1/17/20 will be explained in another update.
Using the daily chart the high on 1/17/20 did not make a new high, the first setback from that went 23.6% (158.40) back to the 10/25/18 low and that also failed to make a new high. This should have set up a break down to 38.2% of the same move. It did that and a lot more. Whenever 38.2% is taken out, it means the current move is over and you should look for 61.8% of that same move, but you can start retracing back up to the high for the move to just how weak, or strong the market is. The first attempt to rally after taking out 38.2% was a 38.2% retracement on 2/28/20, the second attempt to rally could only go 23.6% back on 3/10/20. The break from there took it down to 61.8% of the ATH and ATL at 74.00. The rally from there fell one dollar short of 38.2%, on 3/26/20, but this time it failed to make a new low setting up the next move higher.
If the trend has truly changed then it should start to hold 38.2% of the move. The first time was on 5/14/20 it traded below 38.2%, but never closed below, keeping the trend intact. The second setback held above 38.2% on 6/16/20 again keeping it in a position of strength. Then the market really took off and we had to use the next most important lows to retrace to and these were on 5/14/20 and 6/16/20. The low on 9/21/20 hit the combination retracements of 23.6% and 38.2% from those lows and then again on 10/29/20.
Where we are now..
For this move to remain extremely positive it should hold 23.6% of the 3/19/20 low, this is 165.40 and as long as it does we will look for new ATH's. As we mentioned above, to say the trend is changing it would have to take out 38.2% of the same move at 147.40.