Grains Outlook

Soybeans

As we mentioned in our last update, the nearby bean contract held 38.2% of the current rally at 872.00 on 8/11/20. By doing this it keeps the trend positive and our first target of 970.00 and the longer term target of 1045.00 intact They will still have to contend with 38.2% back to the 2016 high, this level is 940.00, they have had two big moves away from this area, so it is less likely to have a major effect, but still worth watching. The 970.00 target is a major Gann square and you can use the 905.00 major Gann square as the swing point for now. With a couple solid closes back below 905.00 look for the next major Gann square at 850.00. With the long term base that they have built over the last couple years, once they can get above and stay above 940.00 there should be a multi year advance in this market. When and if they do get a couple solid closes above 940.00, this will become our long term swing point.

Corn

The Corn failed to get up to 38.2% of the 6/17/19 high, this was 363.00, it was also a major Gann square and the 200 day moving average at that time. The break from this area did not make a new low (always a positive sign after breaking from 38.2%). The current rally is coming up against the 200 day average at 348.00,  getting a couple solid closes above it will be a positive sign, but it still has to get above 38.2% and the major Gann square (363.00) to breakout. When and if they do, the first target is the next major Gann square at 405.00, this is also 61.8% back to the 2019 high. The longer term target will be 23.6% back to the 2012 all-time high, this is 430.50 and it is also 78.6% back to the 2019 high. On a break below the 200 day average look for the next major Gann square at 315.00.

Wheat

Wheat has been held down for the last two years by the major retracements up at 590.00, this is 23.6% back to the 2008 high and 38.2% back to the 2012 high, it also has a major Gann square at 585.00. This is the area they need to clear to get out of the wide swinging moves they have had, which is very typical when they fail from long term retracements. Provided they can get a couple solid cloes above 590.00 the next target becomes 730.00. For now use the major Gann square at 528.00 as the swing point, above it look for 590.00, below it look for the 48.00 major Gann square.