ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
This post on the T-Bond market is another example of how to use the Fibonacci retracements and why we think they are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Knowing the rules and guidelines, you can go into any market and have an informed idea of what the market needs to hold to keep the trend intact and what to look for when the retracement level is violated.
We will pick up the analysis from our last T-Bond example on 2/27/21, you can find that article here.
“There is one other area of support to watch if this current low is taken out and this is 153.20 and it is 38.2% back to the 2000 low.”
The low on 3/30/21 was 153.29, 9 tics above 38.2% of the ATH and the 2000 low, by holding this level the "Long Term" target would be for it to go for a new ATH, however as we always say, "we will watch all the retracements on any move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target." The first rally from 153.29 went to 23.6% back to 1/28/21, the high of the last leg down. Only being able to get back 23.6% of a move keeps the trend very negative and a new low should follow and a failure to make that new low should send it to at least 38.2% of the same move. This is also where the first of three 78.6% retracements come into play. The 78.6% rule that is,
"Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start."
Knowing this, the low on 5/13/21 should send it to 78.6% the other way and could be the start of a new Bull run. All of the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines are the same no matter what time frame you are working with. The rally from there took it past 78.6% of the smaller move and on up to 23.6% back to the ATH, this happened on 6/21/21 and the setback from it held 38.2% of the current rally on 6/25/21. The 38.2% rule tells us to look for new highs for the move after holding it. It did this, but failed to get to 38.2% of the ATH. The setback back from the 7/20/21 high held 10 tics above 38.2% back to the 3/30/21 low, this was 162.07. That should have led to a new high for the move, it failed to do so and this is where the second 78.6% retracement happens. The highs on 8/19/21 and then again on 9/15/21 hit 78.6%, this was 166.05 and as you can see on the chart it ended the Bull run from the 3/30/21 low.
The setback from 78.6% at 166.05 took it all the way back to 78.6% (third 78.6%) of the 3/30/21 low and the 7/20/21 high, this was 157.08. The target on a rally from here should be 78.6% the other way to start and this is 164.30 and as always we will watch all the retracements and if it fails to even get above 38.2% at 160.27 it would be a very negative sign and you can look for new lows.
The 78.6% level they just held can be the start of the next Bull run that could take it up to 168.24 this is 38.2% of the ATH. It has been trading between to major 38.2% levels, on top it is 38.2% back to the ATH and below it is 38.2% back to the 2000 low and this could continue for months to come. Once either of these are taken out we will get new long term targets of 178.04 on top (61.8% to the ATH) and 128.28 on the downside (61.8% to the 2000) low, until then continue to use the Fibonacci retracements on the shorter term highs and lows and even the Hourly chart.
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