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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
This is our latest video in an ongoing series of how to use the Fibonacci retracements. Even if you do not trade the market covered, the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same, as we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of all markets.
On 11/10/21 it hit 61.8% of the June low and ATH, this was 295.00. Being 61.8% the target from there would be 61.8% the other way and this was 182.00, it got close on 11/29/21 and the rally from that area failed to get above 38.2% keeping the trend negative. It now has hit 78.6% of the June low and November high, this is 144.00. It has not rallied much yet and Friday's low retested this level. The target on a rally from here will be 78.6% the other way at 259.00 and any rally that fails to get above 38.2% at 197.00 keep the short term trend negative and you can look for new lows and then 78.6% of the ATH and ATL at 89.00.
On 11/10/21 it was at 78.6% of the September high and late September low, this was 1.29 and being 78.6% the target was 78.6% the other way at 0.95. This was achieved on 11/26/21 and it could not get above 38.2% keeping the trend negative and on the big spike down day last weekend it took it to 78.6% of the June low and September high, this is 0.70. The target is 78.6% the other way and this is 1.25. So far it has rallied up to 38.2% of the move down at 0.94, use this as the short term swing point.
On 11/10/21 it was rallying from the long term swing point of 191.00, however on the 10th it hit 38.2% of the October low and the ATH, this was 2.34. It is never a good sign to be stopped by 38.2% of a smaller move, especially coming from the long term swing point and new lows for the move followed. With the long term swing point being 38.2% of the ATH and ATL, taking it out would give a target of 61.8% of the same move, this is 1.19. It hit this on Friday and the target is 61.8% the other way at 2.36. Also watch the 23.6% and 38.2% levels marked on the chart to see just how strong, or weak the market is. Below 1.19, it should go for 78.6% at 0.68.
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