2 min read

NASDAQ 100 fails first test

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point



In our last post on 2/26/22 we left you with this..

With 13,060 being 23.6% back to the 2008 low, we know following the ONE44 Fibonacci rules that holding 23.6% should send it to new highs longer term and holding above 12,870 which is 38.2% back to the 2020 low, it should also send it to new highs.

As always we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target. So, looking at the short term trend that is down until it can take out 38.2% of the down move, we will be looking for 14,466, this is also a major Gann square, to see if the short term trend will turn positive to fall in line with the long term trend.

A failure to get above 38.2% will keep the short term trend negative and you can look for new lows from it and a much lower target from there. That will be updated when and if there is a new low. Taking out 38.2% will be a positive sign and the short term target will be 61.8% at 15,350.

Yesterday's high fell just short of the 14,466 major Gann square and 38.2% of the move down from the ATH. Following the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines, we know a break from here should send it to new lows. A sign that that is what they will try for next is, to watch 38.2% of the move up at 13,880, a close below there today would also get it below the 13,913 major Gann square. Provided this does happen, look for it to go for the lows again.

A level to watch on a failure to make a new low is 78.6% of the same move at 13,350. As the 78.6% rule states, this is where a lot of Bull runs start and end. We also know following the 38.2% rule, that a failure to make a new high/low after holding 38.2% should send it to 61.8% of the same move.

For now,

A close above 13,880 today can send it back to test the key level of 14,466 and until this level is taken out the short term trend remains negative. A close below 13,880 should send it to the lows again and any failure to make a new low that holds around 13,350 (78.6%) can send this on a quick rally up to 61.8%.

Sign up for our Free newsletter here.

FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.