Soybeans

Weekly outlook

Soybeans

Going back over the last year there are some very key things that have happened. The first was back in October 2019 when they first hit 38.2% back to the 2016 high, this level was 940.00. As a side note the 2016 high was 38.2% (1205.00) back to the all-time high, so each major rally over the last 4 years has been stopped by 38.2%. We believe this is about to change and that we could see much higher prices. Now back to the 2019 high, this was 38.2% and as the 38.2% rule implies, we should have been looking for new lows. The break from this area was only able to get 78.6% back in April of this year and as the subset of guidelines tells us, "any move from 38.2% that does not make a new low, should send them to 61.8% of the same move". A lot of these failures happen around the 78.6% level, as was the case here. Currently the nearby chart shows it trading above the 200 day average at 885.00, but the November contract has yet to close above it at 909.00. With a couple solid closes above the 200 day the target becomes 61.8% back to the 2016 high, this level is 1043.00. Provided this rally gets going it should always hold 38.2% on any setbacks to remain very positive. As mentioned above we think there can be much higher prices coming and we will update as the move evolves. We will update our view again on Wednesday.