ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
The quick break we were looking for after taking out the 1235.00 long term swing point has not materialized, however as long as it remains below it, the target is 61.8% at 1070.00. The long term swing point (1235.00) is also now 23.6% back to the high on 8/17/21 and 38.2% back to the high on 9/16/21 adding to the importance of this level. With a solid close back above it, look for 38.2% back to the contract high, this is 1302.00 and the short term swing point. Once this level is taken out the short term trend turns positive and you can then look to the longer term levels on the chart. Any rally back above the long term swing point that does not get above 23.6% at 1254.00 is very negative.
Once again Corn had a couple slight closes below the long term swing point of 518.00, this was also the 200 day moving average and then closed back above it on Friday. The trade below 518.00 did hit 78.6% at 507.00 and not taking out the 9/10/21 low should send it to 61.8% back to the contract high, this is 585.00. Following the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines, we know a lot of Bull markets start and end at this retracement, the highs on 6/10/21 and 7/1/21 show this. We will still have to watch 38.2% at 550.00, failing to get above here keeps the short term trend negative. With a solid close back below the long term swing point, look for it to trade down to 61.8% at 445.00.
The long term trend remains very positive after holding the 23.6% retracement of the contract high and low at 685.00 on 9/10/21, however the recent high at 763.00 was 78.6% back to the contract high and as we just mentioned in the Corn update, this is where a lot of Bull runs end and start. The target on a break from here is 78.6% the other way and this is 696.00. Provided they get to it and hold it, it will also keep it above the 200 day moving average and well above the long term swing point of 38.2% at 628.00. So far the break has gone 38.2% back at 725.00, if this is all they can do, look for new contract highs and then the long term target of 960.00.
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