ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
This is our latest video in an ongoing series of how to use the Fibonacci retracements. Even if you do not trade the market covered, the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same, as we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of all markets.
We have been updating our Tesla outlook since it hit the long term swing point back in March and again in May. It started with a video we put out on March 7th and since has been updated through our ONE44 Analytics blog.
The first break from the 1243.49 ATH took the market right to 38.2% of the 3/5/21 low and on 11/16/21 we posted this,
This also hit 979.00 which is 38.2%, so on a rally from here we should be looking for new highs and as always we watch all the retracements on any move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target. With that being said, any rally that fails to get above 38.2% of this current break at 1083.00 should send it back into our key area of support between 979.00 and 948.00. Provided they do take a run at the highs again you will also have to watch 78.6% (1188.00), this is where a lot of Bull runs end, per the 78.6% rule.
It did hold 797.00 perfectly and the rally failed to make new highs, however it did hit 78.6% that we warned about.
Then in our post on 11/22/21 titled, TSLA held 38.2% perfectly and is now at 78.6%, we left you with this ,
The rally from here took it up through 38.2% of the break and on to 78.6% (1188.00) mentioned below, also mentioned is that 78.6% is where a lot of Bull runs end, per the 78.6% rule. We want to make it abundantly clear, Holding 38.2% back on 11/15/21 is a very positive sign and it should go for new highs and if so, look for the long term target at 1370.00. On the other side of this is, any failure to make the new high after holding 38.2%, the target becomes 61.8% of the same move and this is 812.00. Also a break from 78.6% should send it to 78.6% of where it just came from and this is 1028.00, it can also be the end of the Bull run. The 78.6% level does not always work, but when it does, it can be the start of big moves, you can find plenty of these examples in other posts on the site. With a couple closes above 78.6% (1188.00) look for the new highs and the long term target.
On 12/3/21 it completed the 78.6% to 78.6% target at 1028.00 and we posted this,
Another thing to watch for, if they take out 979.00, is it hits 948.00 and closes back above 979.00, this is 23.6% of the ATH and ATL. Provided this did happen, look for a quick move back to the ATH.
This brings us to today,
Yesterday it took out the 979.00 low and the new low was 950.50, just above the 948.00 that is 23.6% of the ATH and ATL. It now looks to be starting the quick move back to the ATH, however as we always mention, you have to watch all the retracements on any move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target. The key retracement for any trend to continue is 38.2% as was evident back in March and in November so, if the 78.6% level hit up at 1188.00 is going to be the end of the current Bull run for now, it should not close above 1063.00 (38.2%). Provided they fail to get above this area look for new lows for the move and then the 61.8% at 812.00. With a solid close above 1063.00 look for 78.6% that is now at 1181.00. The long term target is still 1370.00 provided they stay above 948.00 on a closing basis.
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