ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements and Gann squares.
Here is a quick set of guidelines for the Fibonacci retracements to help with this article. You can find all the rules/guidelines and examples on any deviations from these four basic rules on our website.
1) The Golden rule, any market that is going to continue the current trend must hold 38.2% and a new high/low should follow.
2) Markets that are extremely strong/weak will only go 23.6% and a new high/low should follow.
3) The 61.8% rule is, any market that holds 61.8% should go 61.8% of where it just came from. Usual happens when a market is directionless, or in a consolidation period.
4) The 78.6% rule is, any market that holds 78.6% should go 78.6% of where it just came from. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.
This update is going to expand on a video we did back in March of this year. TSLA was one of the stocks we covered and today we will bring you up to date on it.
The video was put out the day after the low of the move down from the ATH, it was on 3/5/21 and the low was 539.49, the close was 597.95. This area was 38.2% (581.00) back to the March 2020 low and 61.8% (552.00) back to the 9/8/20 low. This area is highlighted on the chart. At that time we said this was the area that needed to hold to keep the trend intact and that the long term target would be new highs.
The initial rally took it up to 61.8% back to the ATH, this was 763.00 on 4/14/21. This completed the 61.8% target after hitting 61.8% (552.00) below and yes the long term target is still new highs, however we watch all the retracements to see just how weak, or strong the market is. As mentioned above, when the market is reacting to 61.8% it "Usual happens when a market is directionless, or in a consolidation period." The break from 763.00 took it back to 61.8% at 552.00 and then again up to 61.8% of where it just came from at 690.00 on 8/2/21 and traded up there for 10 trading days. The target on a break from here would be 61.8% back at 610.00, it was unable to get to it and this is where the market starts to show strength again by hold 38.2% at 639.00. It did traded below this level a few times, but never closed below it. Following the 38.2% rule it should go for new highs for the move and it did.
The rally from 639.00 took it to 78.6% at 730.00, here too it traded at this level for ten trading days. The setback from there held 38.2% (658.00) once again, showing the short term trend from the 5/19/21 low is intact and new highs should follow.
They have made the new highs for the move after holding 658.00 and our target is 816.00, this is 78.6% of the highlighted area on the chart and the ATH. This will be the target as long as it continues to hold 38.2% on any setback, right now this is 668.00.
Our long term target once it can make a new ATH will be 961.00. It would take a couple solid closes below 552.00 to turn the long term trend negative and if so, we would be looking for 61.8% at 380.00.