Weekly Grain/Livestock Update 2/6/25
Overview
May Soybeans, Corn and Wheat all held key levels below and now have hit longer term retracements above, or about to.
Soybeans held the 1057.00 swing point for the week, this was 23.6% back to the 12/19/24 low. Yesterday it hit 1092.00, this is 23.6% on the continuation chart, if taken out it will turn the Intermediate trend turns positive.
Corn had a quick spike down to the 486.00 swing point for the week and then made a new high for this leg up. This was 23.6% back to the 8/26/24 low and a very strong sign. It is now approaching our target of 61.8% at 512.00. On a turn from this area we would be using the ONE44 61.8% rule for a target.
In Wheat the setback from the 580.25 swing point held the 38.2% short term target at 565.00 keeping the short term trend positive. The rally from there hit the 593.00 target, this level is 23.6% back to the contract high and could cause a bigger setback.
Soybean Meal continues to trade between 78.6% retracements. The swing point for the week was 299.00 (78.6%) and the short term target was 314.50 (78.6%), this was the fourth 78.6% retracement in a month.
In Soybean Oil the rally from the 44.25 swing point hit the short term target of 47.54 this was a 78.6% retracement and a major Gann square.
The setback this week in Cattle held above the long term swing point at 195.50, this is 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low, above it a run back to test the recent high is possible and more.
The break from the 276.63 swing point for the week and a major Gann square hit the short term target at 266.44, holding this level can send it back to the highs very quickly.
Lean Hogs continue to trade between 78.6% retracements of 91.60 and 86.07. The wide swings are not uncommon when dealing with the 78.6% retracement.
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Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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Soybeans
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term |  |
1095.00 | 940.00 |
| Intermediate Term |  |
1026.00 | 1095.00 |
| Short Term | |
1026.00 | 1095.00 |
| As of: 2/6/2025, 2:29:02 PM | |||
March
From last week,
It held the 23.6% at 1045.00 all week, but there has been no run to new highs yet. Without making a new high all the Above/Below remain the same.
Use 1045.00 as the swing point for the week.
It had two minor closes below1045.00, but held well above the short term target of 1027.00 (38.2%) keeping the short term trend positive. It still needs to take out 38.2% back to the contract high at 1095.00 to turn the long term trend positive, this level will be key for the next week.
Use 1095.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, turns the long term trend positive. You will still have to watch for a trade up to, or though 1095.00 and a close back below the 1086.50 major Gann square, as this can cause a quick setback. The short term target is the 1141.00 major Gann square. The long term target is 61.8% back to the contract high at 1188.25, this is also a major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 12/19/24 low at 1029.00, holding this keeps the short term trend positive and a new high can quickly follow. The long term target area is the 981.00 major Gann square and 78.6% of the same move at 976.00.
May
From last week,
The combination of longer term retracements above at 1092.00 still could send this market back to test the low. The setback so far is holding 23.6% back to the 12/19/24 low at 1057.00 which is a very strong sign, this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 1057.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, provided this is all it can setback after getting into the 1083.75/1092.00 target area, look for a quick rally to a new high. You will still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 1092.00 and then a close below the 1083.75 major Gann square, doing this can cause a sharp selloff. Above....
It did trade below the 1057.00 swing point for the week, but never closed below it. The rally from it hit the long term combination of retracements at 1092.00 and then closed below the 1083.75 major Gann square. We will see if this area sends the market sharply lower. We will also watch all of the retracements on any setback to see just how weak, or strong the market is. The key level for next week will be the combination retracement level at 1092.00.
Use 1092.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, will turn the Intermediate trend positive and the short term target is the 1135.75 major Gann square. The long term target area is 61.8% back to the contract high at 1174.00 and the 1185.50 major Gann square.
Below it, with the combination of longer term retracements at 1092.00 a quick selloff is still possible, provided there is, the long term target area is 78.6% at 984.50 and the 977.75 major Gann square. Any setback that holds 38.2% at 1040.00 keeps the short term trend positive and a new high can quickly follow.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Soybean Meal
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
335.00 | 290.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
315.00 | 290.00 |
| Short Term | |
308.00 | 335.00 |
| As of: 2/6/2025, 2:33:31 PM | |||
March
From last week,
Staying true to the ONE44 78.6% rule, the market had another 78.6% to 78.6% move, this time down to 299.00 and this will be the key level for the next week. This is the fourth 78.6% retracement in under a month. It looks like it is building a nice base for another run higher in the longer term. We will be looking for the long term swing point to start.
Use 299.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/23/25 high at 314.50. The....
The rally from 299.00 (78.6%) went right to 78.6% the other way at 314.50 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. It still looks like it is building a nice base for another run higher in the longer term. We will be looking for the long term swing point to start. The 300.80 major Gann square will be key for the next week.
Use 300.80 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, with the base being built right now the long term target is the long term swing point at 335.00, this is 38.2% back to the contract high. The short term target is the 325.00 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 78.6% of the 12/19/24 low and 1/2/25 high at 293.20. The long term target is the 277.00 major Gann square.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Soybean Oil
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
50.50 | 39.40 |
| Intermediate Term | |
46.50 | 39.52 |
| Short Term | |
44.20 | 47.50 |
| As of: 2/6/2025, 2:36:17 PM | |||
March
From last week,
Oil had a small range this week and all of it held 38.2% at 44.25. This will again be the key level for next week. With no new high, or low all the Above/Below remain the same.
Use 44.25 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 47.54, this is a major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 11/11/24 high. The long....
The rally from the 44.25 (38.2%) swing point for the week hit the 47.54 major Gann square and 78.6% retracement (high for the week was 47.54). The setback from it is just short of the new 38.2% level at 44.50, this will be the key level for next week.
Use 44.50 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, being a 38.2% retracement, holding it keeps the short term trend positive and a new high is possible. The long term target is the 51.15 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 51.85.
Below it, turns the short term trend negative and since 47.54 was a 78.6% retracement we will look for 78.6% the other way at 41.20 per the ONE44 78.6% rule.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Corn
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
472.00 | 512.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
458.00 | 512.00 |
| Short Term | |
548.00 | 512.00 |
| As of: 2/6/2025, 2:38:28 PM | |||
March
From last week,
This week's low held above the 473.00 swing point for the week and it went on to new high keeping the trend very strong. With the new high the 23.6% level moves up to the 475.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 475.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target area is 61.8% back to the contract high at 508.00 and the 512.25 major Gann square. Keep...
The spike down on Monday held the 475.00 major Gann square and 23.6% retracement keeping the trend extremely positive. We continue to look for the area of 508.00/512.25. With a slightly higher high the 23.6% level moves up to 475.75, however we are going to keep the same swing point 475.00 because of the major Gann square. The Above/Below remain the same.
Use 475.00 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, the short term target area is 61.8% back to the contract high at 508.00 and the 512.25 major Gann square. Keep in mind a setback from a 61.8% level can send this market 61.8% the other way per the ONE44 61.8% rule, this level is yet to be determined. The long term target area is 78.6% back to the contract high at 538.00 and the 545.00 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 8/26/24 low at 461.50, this is the long term swing point now, holding this area can send it back to a new high. The longer term target is the area of the 440.50 major Gann square and 61.8% to the same low at 439.00.
May
From last week,
May held above the 483.00 swing point and made a new high for this leg up. It is still in the area that can cause a bigger setback with 512.00 being a 61.8% retracement. For now we will use the tightest retracement of 23.6% at 486.00 for the key level for next week.
Use 486.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, you still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 512.00 and a close below the 504.75 major Gann square, as this can cause a quick selloff.....
The spike down on Monday held the 23.6% level at 486.00 (swing point) keeping the short term trend extremely positive. It made a slightly higher high and is getting close to 61.8% at 512.00, this is a level that can cause a bigger setback, so it will be the key level for next week.
Use 512.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, you still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 512.00 and a close below the 504.75 major Gann square, as this can cause a quick selloff. The short term target is 539.25, this is 78.6% and a major Gann square. The long term target is 571.75, this 38.2% on the continuation chart and a major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 8/26/24 low at 472.00, this is now the long term swing point, holding it can send quickly to a new high. With it being close to the 61.8% level at 512.00 the longer term target will be 61.8% the other way at 450.00 per the ONE44 61.8% rule.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Wheat
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
670.00 | 464.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
610.00 | 495.50 |
| Short Term | |
565.00 | 610.00 |
| As of: 2/6/2025, 2:43:05 PM | |||
March
From last week,
The setback did not hold 38.2%, however it did fail to make a new low at a 78.6% level (534.00) and following the ONE44 78.6% rule we know that this is where a lot of Bull runs start (and end). It hit the 78.6% target of 559.00 on Wednesday and today it hit the 38.2% level at 570.00 and this can send it back to test the low, so this will be the key level for the next week. We will again look for another sign that the rally will continue even with it hitting 570.00, so 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 556.00, holding 38.2% of a smaller move after hitting 38.2% of a much bigger range would be a very good sign.
Use 570.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, turns the short term trend positive and the short term target is the 585.75 major Gann square. The long....
Below it, we usually don't like to use a 38.2% level in a tight range, but in this case holding it would be a very positive sign. The short term target is 555.00. The....
Wheat got the second positive sign of a trend change after failing to make a new low at a 78.6% (534.00, 1/27/25) and now holding 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 555.00. The rally from there has now hit the 585.75 major Gann square that was also the short term target, this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 585.75 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target area on a rally from here is 78.6% back to the 10/2/24 high at 616.00 and 38.2% back to the 5/28/24 high at 625.00, this is also the long term swing point.
Below it, look for 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low at 539.00. Any setback that holds the new 38.2% at 565.00 keeps the short term trend positive and a new high can quickly follow, just as it did last week.
May
From last week,
May also didn't hold 38.2% at 563.00, however it failed to make a new low at a 78.6% level (546.00). The rally from it took it up to the 580.25 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 10/2/24 high, so this is the key level for the next week. The positive side is that the failure to make a new low also led to the market making a higher high this week. A setback from 580.25 could send this market back to test the low, so we will again watch the 38.2% level, holding it would be a very strong sign.
Use 580.25 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, you still have to watch 23.6% back to the contract high at 593.00, this will be the short term target, this level can send it back to test the lows.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 565.00, holding this would be a very strong sign since it is coming off from a 38.2% level of a much bigger range....
The setback from the 580.25 swing point held 38.2% at 565.00 and this was a very positive sign and it quickly went on to a new high. Today it closed above the 23.6% level at 593.00 and this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 593.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for the area of 38.2% back to the contract high at 628.00 (long term swing point) and the 634.75 major Gann square. The long term target is 61.8% of the same move at 681.00.
Below it, getting right back below 593.00 tomorrow can send this market back to test the recent low. The long term target is 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low at 551.00. The short term target is 38.2% back of the same move at 576.00, holding this level keeps the short term trend positive and new highs can quickly follow just as it did last week.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Livestock
Cattle
April
From last week,
Tuesday it closed above the 203.88 major Gann square and that made it the swing point, today's close is well below it. The break is just shy of 23.6% at 200.35 and this will be the key level for next week. After such a big rally the first place to check this market will be 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low at 195.50, this is now the long term swing point.
Use 200.35 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the key test of this Bull run will be 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low at 195.50, holding it keeps the long term trend positive. The long....
The selloff fell just short of the long term swing point at 195.50 today, this level will be key for the next week. Holding it can send it right back up to test the recent high and if so we will be looking for 78.6% back to the 1/28/25 high. A failure to hold it turns the long term trend negative and 61.8% is next.
Use 195.50 as the swing point for the next week.
Above it, can send it to a new high and the 210.97 major Gann square being it is the long term swing point. The short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/28/25 high at 205.20. Any rally that can't get above 38.2% of the same move at 200.30 is a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.
Below it, turns the long term trend negative, the short term target area is the 190.25 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the 8/21/24 low at 188.00. The long term target is 23.6% on the continuation chart at 177.65, this is also a major Gann square.
Feeder Cattle
March
From last week,
This week it had one close above the 276.63 major Gann square and that made it the swing point for the week, the next day closed right back below it and this will be the key level for the week.
Use 276.63 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target is 23.6% back to the 9/9/24 low at 266.44, holding this keeps the trend extremely positive and new highs can quickly follow. The long term...
This week's break from the 276.63 major Gann square and swing point for the week closed below 23.6% at 266.44 today, this level will be key for the next week.
Use 266.44 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, with this being 23.6%, getting right back above it in the next day or two can send it to a new high and the 285.11 major Gann square. The short term target is 78.6% at 276.63, this is also a major Gann square. A failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can send this market quickly lower (ONE44 78.6% rule).
Below it, look for the long term swing point at 258.00, this is 38.2% back to the 9/9/24 low. A failure to hold 258.00 will give us a downside target area of the 245.36 major Gann square and 61.8% of the same move at 244.80.
Lean Hogs
April
From last week,
The rally from 86.07 (78.6%) hit 78.6% at 90.39 and more, it has yet to make a new high for the year, so the 90.39 major Gann square will be key for this week.
Use 90.39 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/8/25 low at 86.07, this is also a major Gann square....
The break last Friday held just above 78.6% and major Gann square at 86.07 and quickly rallied right back to and through the 90.39 swing point for the week, this will again be the key level for the next week. Even with the wide swings between the 78.6% retracements it is still above the long term swing point of 85.50 that it hit on 1/7/25 and this can still send it to a new high.
Use 90.39 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, the short term target is the next major Gann square at 95.35. The longer term target is 61.8% on the continuation chart at 97.30.
Below it, The short term target is the next major Gann square at 86.07. Since they already reacted to 38.2% at 85.50 the long term target area is the 81.47 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the 8/13/24 low at 80.60.
