Weekly Grain/Livestock Update 7/10/25

Grains & Livestock, Opposite Directions, but Adhering to the Same ONE44 Fibonacci Rules and Guidelines.

The best way to tell if a market will keep the current trend is by watching the 38.2% retracement,

The Charts in this weeks update are key to this analysis.

The 38.2% retracement is the single most important and is the level we use for the "Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement.

A market that is in an extremely strong trend (up, or down) will only set back 23.6% and then quickly go for a new high/Low,

Extremely strong/weak markets will only go back 23.6%. This is Typically a runaway market.

 When there are extended runs in the market it is always best to watch 23.6% to see just how strong or weak the market is. This retracement level is not for small ranges. This retracement should be from the lowest low/highest high of the current run to be most effective.

On the up trends we have Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Every setback since the bottom on 9/9/24 in Cattle has held either a 23.6%, or 38.2% retracement. On 11/1/24 and 12/18/24  it held a 23.6% retracement and on 3/4/25 and 4/9/25 it held a 38.2% retracement. The most recent setback held a combination of .23.6% back to the contract low and 38.2% back to the 4/9/25 low at 280.30 before going on to new highs.

In Hogs, once the market turned higher from the 87.55 major Gann square (in the nearby contract it started from a 78.6% retracement) the setbacks on 5/1/25 and 5/27/25 held 23.6% retracements and quickly went on to new highs. The rally was stopped by a 78.6% retracement on the continuation chart on 6/17/25 at 113.20, the setback from there is currently sitting on a 23.6% retracement back to the contract low.

The long term trend remains down in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat based on the retracements as well. We still think this is building a base for the next Bull market, but it is going to take a little longer based on the retracements that are keeping it down. What we are seeing is a lot more movement between 61.8% and 78.6% retracements.

ONE44 61.8% rule,

Whenever the market holds 61.8% of a move, look for it to go 61.8% of where it just came from. This usually happens when a market is directionless, or in a consolidation period.

 ONE44 78.6% rule,

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.

In Soybeans the high on 2/5/25 at 1094.00 was turned lower by a 38.2% retracement keeping the Intermediate trend negative. Since then we have seen a failure to make a new low at a 78.6% retracement on 4/7/25 and the rally from it hit 78.6% the other way on 5/14/25 and again on 6/16/25. The current setback has hit 78.6% the other way again at 1005.00, this will be a key level for the week.

In Dec. Corn the high on 2/19/25 hit 23.6% on the continuation chart at 475.00 and the 478.50 major Gann square keeping the long term trend negative. The low on 3/31/25 held 78.6% at 439.00 and that sent it 78.6% back the other way on 4/16/25. Each rally after that could only get 38.2% back on 6/22/25 and then 23.6% on 6/20/25. Last week's high hit 38.2% at 440.00 and that sent it to a new low for the move.

 The high on 2/18/25 in Wheat hit 38.2% at 637.00 and that kept the long term trend negative. A few rally attempts on 4/11/25, 5/21/25 and 6/9/25 failed to get above a 38.2% retracement keeping the short term trend negative. The high on 6/20/25 fell well short of 38.2% at 612.00 and 61.8% back to the 2/18/25 high at 598.00 and the current low hit 78.6% at 537.00. We will see if this is the bottom of the next Bull move, or it only gets 78.6% back the other way.

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Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.

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