Weekly Grain update 10/16/22

Overview

Soybeans

From last week,

Use the 1368.00 major Gann square as the swing point to start the week again.

With 1368.00 also being 61.8% of the 9/13/22 high and 7/22/22 low, a rally from here should take it up 61.8% the other way based on the ONE44 61.8% rule. When using the major Gann squares, above 1368.00 can send it to the one it just came from at 1464.00. So, the area to look for on a rally from here is 1450.00 and 1464.00. Any rally that can't get above 38.2% at 1411.00 would be a negative sign and you can look for new lows for the move down.

Monday and Tuesday held 1368.00 and the 40 cent rally from it on Wednesday hit 1411.00, not a good sign to be stopped by 38.2% and new lows could be on the way.

Soybean Meal

From last week,

Use the 393.70 major Gann square as the swing point to start the week.

Holding above 393.700 should send it to the area of 411.70 (38.2%) and the 414.00 major Gann square, this is the short term swing point.

The rally after hitting the 393.70 to 389.90 target zone last week hit the area of 411.70 to 414.00, it has yet to get a solid close above this area.

Soybean Oil

From last week,

Use the 64.41 major Gann square as the swing point to start the week.

Thursday mornings low hit 64.41 and rallied $2.60 so far.

Corn

Monday closed above the 693.75 major Gann square and then spent the week trading right at it. They have a full major Gann square move coming.

Wheat

From last week,

Use 869.00 as the swing point to start the week.

and from Tuesday,

Once again the trend was kept positive by staying above a 38.2% retracement. Monday's explosive rally fell 2 cents short of the 952.00 long term swing point and in the March contract it hit it. We will now watch the short term retracements to see just how weak, or strong this market is.

Any set back from 952.00 that holds 38.2%, just as it did on 9/19/22, 9/26/22 and 10/7/22 would keep the trend very positive.

The new high was made on Monday 2 cents short from the long term swing point at 952.00, March hit theirs. The break from it took it right to 38.2% at 872.00, an 80 cent break. The 30 cent rally from there failed to close above the 900.50 major Gann square and has now taken out 872.00.

Hogs

From last week,

Holding the long term swing point can send this market on a big rally, even as high as 87.60, this is 78.6% of the break, however the first test of the strength of this market will be at 38.2% at 80.10, this will be the short term target on a rally from 74.50.

The rally after holding the long term swing point of 74.75 and hitting the 73.37 major Gann square has indeed sent this market on a big rally. It already has taken out 38.2% of the break at 80.10, turning the short term trend positive and longer term we still think it can get up to 78.6% of the break at 87.60. There is one level before this of importance and it is because 61.8% at 84.50 matches up nicely with the 84.71 major Gann square. A break from this area can send it 61.8% the other way, this is yet to be determined.

On any setback we would want to see the market hold 38.2% of the current leg at 79.05 and the 78.81 major Gann square. Failing to hold this area can send it down to 78.6% at 75.05.

For both the upside and downside you can use each major Gann square as support and resistance and a swing point once it has been taken out. You can see the value of these levels by just looking at the chart below.

Cattle

All of this from last week remains the same, as 3 of the 5 day's this week held the 147.13 major Gann square.

This week so far has sat on the 147.13 major Gann square. We will continue to use this as the swing point. Above it, look for 78.6% back to the high at 150.85. Below it, look for 144.00, this is 78.6% of the 9/20/22 high and 5/31.22 low. On an extended break look for the area of the 137.65 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2020 low at  137.20. Once above the 151.75 major Gann square we will look for the next one at 156.98.

Here too, you can see the importance of the major Gann squares for support and resistance.

If you like this kind of analysis and trade the Grains, give us a look Grains Weekly update.

Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.

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