Weekly Grain update 2/5/23
Overview
Soybeans
May Soybeans had a tight range for the week, however they did hit 78.6% above on Monday at 1530.00 and then held the swing point for the week at 1508.25 on Wednesday.
From last week,
Use 1508.25 as the swing point for the week again.
We will also be watching how it trades at 78.6% at 1530.00, as a failure to make the new high after holding 23.6% below can cause a sharp break.
As for what to look for when it hits a 78.6% retracement you can view the video on the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements here and as long as it holds the 1508.25 major Gann square we will be looking for the next one above.
Corn
A quiet week here too, This was from last week,
Use 668.25 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, by holding 38.2% at 668.25 there is a good chance they get out of the trading range that they have been in for almost two months between the major Gann squares of 685.00 and 649.50. Once it can close above the 685.00 major Gann square the target becomes the next one at .....
It still has not been able to get outside of the two month range, 3 days this week traded above the 685.00 major Gann square, but never closed above it, until it can it is possible they go for the previous major Gann square below.
Wheat
From last week,
Use 741.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for the area of the 765.25 major Gann square and 23.6% of the 10/10/22 high and 1/23/23 low at 771.50. This will be the first test of the strength of the market, a failure from here can send it to new lows.
Tuesday's low was 742.00, holding 38.2% (741.00) of the current leg up and Friday's high was 776.50, but it failed to close above 771.00, this is 23.6% back to the 10/10/22 high. It also failed to close above the 765.25 major Gann square.
Livestock
Hogs
From last week,
The long term swing point of 84.30 held again this week, as mentioned above this is also 61.8% of the contract high and low and being so can send it 61.8% the other way per the ONE44 61.8% rule.
Use 84.30 as the swing point for the week again.
Hogs traded below the 84.30 swing point for the week, however as always it is the close that is important and more important is the second close that follows in the same direction needed to violate a key level.
The long term swing point is 38.2% on the weekly continuation chart and it is 61.8% back of the contract high and low. The long term target after holding 38.2% will be making new highs for the year. The short term target is 61.8% the other way at 91.70 we get this target following the ONE44 61.8% rule. Any rally that fails to get above 38.2% of the current leg down at 88.45 would be a negative sign and new lows should follow.
Use 84.30 as the swing point for the week again.
Failing to hold 84.30 turns the long term trend negative and the longer term target is 61.8% at 75.25. Short term look for 78.6% of the contract high and low at 80.20.
Cattle
From last week,
The setback in Cattle after failing to make a new high on 1/10/23 held above 38.2% at 158.30 and this week's swing point of 160.10 keeping the up trend very strong.
Use the 160.10 major Gann square as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, since it already reacted to the 162.97 major Gann square with 12/29/23 high we will be looking for the next major Gann square at 165.50. One thing to watch for is, it makes a new high for the year and above the 162.97 major Gann square and then closes back below it, this can cause a sharp setback, if so look for 38.2% back to the 5/31/22 low.
Everything remains extremely strong with Cattle, it did have one close below the 162.97 major Gann square after closing above it, however it closed right back above it the next day and didn't get the second one below it to confirm the violation of the level.
Use the 162.97 major Gann square as the swing point for the week.
Continue to look for the 165.51 major Gann square and once it can close above it, you can use it as the swing point for the week and then look for the next major Gann square at 168.55.
Below, since this market continues to make higher highs and higher lows we will look for the tightest retracement below the 162.97 major Gann square at 161.10 this is 23.6% back to the 5/31/22 low. On an extended break, look for 38.2% of the same move at 159.20.
Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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