Weekly Grain update 3/19/23
Overview
Soybeans
May
From the 3/5/23 update,
Tuesday was the low for the week and it did close below 1489.00, however the next day was right back above it, failing to get two days in a row below a key level to confirm a violation of it. (The other key about the second day below it is, it should be a lower close than the first one below it). By holding a 23.6% retracement going back to the 7/22/22 low, we will be looking for new highs, as this is a strong sign for the market.
We will also watch 78.6% of the 2/22/23 high and 2/28/23 low at 1534.00. Following the ONE44 78.6% rule, we know a 78.6% retracement back to where it came from is the first target to look for on a setback and it can also be the end of the bull run. In this case (because the market is so strong) if it were to turn lower from the 1534.00 area and have an extended move lower, we would look for the area of the 1457.75 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 7/22/22 low at 1453.00.
From the Special update on 3/8/23,
Monday's high hit the 78.6% level at 1534.00 and is now setting back. On a break from a 78.6% retracement we will be looking for 78.6% the other way per the ONE44 78.6% rule and this is 1492.00. If all it can setback is to the 1508.25 major Gann square and swing point for the week, the market remains very strong and the new highs should follow. On an extended break from 1534.00 we would still be looking for the area of the 1457.75 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 7/22/22 low at 1453.00.
This week it completed the first target of the ONE44 78.6% rule and that was 78.6% the other way at 1492.00. With the extended break from 78.6% it will have to hold the 1457.75 to 1453.00 area to avoid it being the end of this run up for the time being.
Soybean Meal
From last week,
It has now hit the 494.20 major Gann square, but failed to close above it yet.
Use 494.20 as the swing point for the week now.
Below it, look for one major Gann square back at 468.60, this is also 23.6% back to the 7/5/22 low, holding this level keeps the trend extremely strong. On an extended move lower from the 494.20 major Gann square, look for the area of 23.6% back to the contract low at 457.50 and 38.2% back to the 7/5/22 low at 451.20.
This week it completed the target of one major Gann square at 494.20 to the other at 468.60 and with an extended break we are still looking for the area of 457.50 to 451.20 for the reasons mentioned last week.
Wheat
July
From the 3/10/23 Special update,
It has now hit the area of the 679.50 major Gann square and 78.6% at 674.00.
Use 679.50 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for the area of 38.2% back to the 2/14/23 high at 727.00 and the 731.50 major Gann square. Any rally that fails to get above the 704.75 major Gann square, that is also 23.6% back to the 2/14/23 high is a negative sign and new lows should follow.
Monday's low was 678.25 and it has rallied 40 cents so far, we continue to look for the area of 727.00 to 731.50.
Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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