Weekly Grain update 5/8/22
In the smallest picture the July Soybeans held 61.8% of the move between 4/4/22 and 4/22/22, this was 1626.00, the rally from it was only able to get to 38.2% back up at 1665.00. In this week's update we will follow up on the Video we put out this week on the July Soybeans using the 5 and 1 minute charts. We will also go back a little further to show you other examples of how the 38.2% held and when it was taken out.
The break below the 459.10 major Gann square took it to the 434.40 major Gann square target and more. It has had 2 close below it, so use it now as the swing point.
The break from 434.40 is now approaching the target of the long term swing point.
The run up to the 84.71 major Gann square went well through it, but only had one close above it. With Friday's close back below it, use it as the short term swing point.
The break on Monday went $5.00 , but held above the short term target of 78.65.
The setback from the 815.75 major Gann square in the July contract held 23.6% of the move up from the 3/16/22 low, just as it did in the previous week and Friday's low held the 776.75 major Gann square on the hourly basis. These are just the short term levels and when some of the bigger levels get taken out we can watch the rallies back up to see just how weak, or strong the market is.
The break from the 1140.25 major Gann square hit our target of the 1044.00 major Gann square and has had an 80 cent rally so far. This week's low also held 61.8% of the move from 3/29/22 and 4/19/22, it then completed the 61.8% target on 5/5/22 (hourly chart).
Here are some more examples of how the 38.2% levels have held and what followed and some where the original target was interrupted by another retracement.
The first part of the 38.2% rule is this,
Of these, 38.2% is the single most important retracement and is the level we use for the "Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement.
The rest of the 38.2% guidelines can be found HERE
We have a bunch of examples in just the last month in the July Soybean hourly chart.Going back 4/3/22 the rally from that low hit 38.2% at 1618.00, now the target on a break from there should be a new low, however as you can see all it set back was 38.2% of the rally at 1600.00 on 4/6/22. It is always a strong indication of the trend when 38.2% of a smaller range stops a move from 38.2% of a larger range. Keep in mind this is on a micro level, but the rules apply the same. The rally from 1600.00 did as it should after holding 38.2% and that is new highs followed. That rally took it up to 61.8% at 1673.50 on 4/10/22, while we would be looking for 61.8% the other way, per the ONE44 61.8% rule, it could only get back to, just above 38.2% at 1633.50 on 4/11/22. The rally from there took it to new highs.
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