Weekly Grain update 7/31/22
We need to go over the last two weeks' updates to see what caused this massive rally in Soybeans. It all comes down to, did the key levels hold and if so what were we looking for.
Last two weeks updates,
We now have the long term swing point telling us to look for a new high, the 38.2% rule, that failed to make a new low from 1412.00 is telling us to look for 61.8% of the same move at 1588.00 in August and 1480.00 in November and the last on is the 78.6% rule telling us to look for 78.6% the other way to start.
One scenario to watch for on a new low in the Nov. is, it makes that new low the 1282.00 major Gann square and then closes higher for the day. Making only a slightly lower low and getting right back above the long term swing point can produce a slingshot type move.
This will hinge on it staying above the 1301.00 long term swing point, if so look for 38.2% at 1401.00 to start and any rally that can't get above 23.6% at 1360.00 is a very negative sign and you can look for new lows. On a failure to hold the long term swing point the long term target will be 61.8% of the same move at 1125.00 with two other major Gann squares to watch for support at 1282.00 and 1200.50.
and this was from the Video update on Tuesday,
Part of ONE44 38.2% rule,
When the market holds 38.2% and the reaction does not make a new high/low, or a slightly higher high/lower low, this is a sign the trend is changing and because they have already reacted from 38.2% you should look for 61.8% of that same move as well.
The 1472.00 target was hit this morning
Going back to the first paragraph above we know that by holding the long term swing point of 1301.00 that new highs were the long term target. The setup of already reacting from 38.2% on 7/11/22 and making only a slightly lower low could cause a "slingshot move'' and that 61.8% would be the target by doing this.
You can also see what kind of rally to expect when it fails to make a new low after hitting a retracement above and holds 78.6%, in Dow Futures post we just did, where it produced a 2,250 point move.
Our goal is to give you the key levels that must hold and if so what to look for and if not where it can go the other way and more importantly why!
Here is another massive rally coming from the long term swing point, only August Meal sat on the long term swing point for two months before taking off and just before doing so it held 38.2% of the current leg up at 426.00 on 7/15/22. This was from last week,
Longer term, taking out the 458.90 major Gann square should send it up to the next one at 486.60. Provided it did close above 458.90, it will then become a swing point.
We are moving into the Sept. contract this week, but this will be the swing point to start the week.
From last week,
Use the 57.92 major Gann square as the swing point to start the week again, above it look for 38.2% at 67.00, not getting back above 62.00 is very negative and you can look for a break down to the longer term levels, just mentioned.
Monday started well above 57.92 swing point and by Thursday it hit 38.2% at 67.00. Today it is well above it and you can use it as the swing point to start next week, we will be going into the Sept here too.
From last week,
Use the 569.00 major Gann square as the swing point to start the week. Below it, look for 61.8% of the same move (contract high and low) at 523.00, with one major Gann square for support at 537.50. Above it, look for 38.2% of the move down at 640.00,
Monday's low was 568.50 and today's high as I write this is just short of 640.00.
From last week,
Use 797.00 (61.8%) as the swing point to start the week again.
Tuesday closed back above 797.00 and there has been a 60 cent rally so far.
Thank You to all the new subscribers!
Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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