Weekly Grain update 11/20/22
Hogs and Cattle and the 78.6% retracement.
Following the ONE44 78.6% rule,
Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.
We now have both Hogs and Cattle in a very positive up trend, however as always we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the longer term target. Both of these markets are up against their 78.6% retracements.
In the February contract we started the week with the 88.58 major Gann square as the swing point for the week. The low for the week was 88.25 and this is what we were looking for,
Above it, look for the 92.50 major Gann square, failing to get above 78.6% at 90.70 can send it on a quick move lower. Below it, look for the area of 38.2% at 85.90 and the 85.02 major Gann square. As long as this area holds the longer term trend remains very positive.
It never took out the 88.58 major Gann square on a closing basis, so the second part of that is meaningless. Above it, we were looking for the next major Gann square, with the caution that failing to get above 78.6% at 90.70 can send it on a quick move lower.
Use 90.70 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for the 92.50 major Gann square and then the one at 96.57.
Below it, since it is a 78.6% retracement and it is possible it can be the end of this run up, we will be looking for the area of 61.8% at 82.00 and the 81.37 major Gann square. Any break from 90.70 that holds the area of 38.2% at 85.85 and the 85.02 major Gann square would be a very strong sign and they should go on to new highs for this leg up.
We started the week with 153.32 as the swing point for the week, Monday and Tuesday closed below it and once above it on Wednesday it took off, falling just short of the 156.40 major Gann square target.
Use 156.40 as the swing point for the week.
Above it look for the 158.89 major Gann square.
Below it, failing to make a new high and being at 78.6% (156.15) can send this market on a quick move lower, look for the area of the 151.63 major Gann square and 61.8% at 151.00.
Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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