Wheat Update

When we go back in time you can see just how important the long term Fibonacci retracement levels are and how they help us look forward. The highs in August of 2018, January 2020 and again in March 2020 all hit a combination of retracements at 590.00. These were 23.6% back to the all-time high and 38.2% back to the 2012 high, it was also a major Gann square.This was and still is our long term swing point. One of the reasons why we thought back in the fall of 2020 that this could be a multi year run up was the base they built over the last two years and that once they cleared 590.00, then 730.00 would be the long term target.

You can go to our website to see just what we were saying back then for reference.

They took out the 590.00 long term swing point in October 2020, that rally fell short of the 648.25 major Gann square and then went back to test the 590.00 level. The bounce from there went up to 616.00, then closed below 590.00. The positive thing that happened below the 590.00 long term swing point was that they held above 38.2% of 2016 low and then closed back above it. This brought the 730.00 long term target back into play, 730.00 is 38.2% back to the ATH and will be the true test if this is going to be a multi year rally. A setback from that level could send it back 38.2% of the 2016 low, more on that when and if it gets there. Right now they are up against the 648.25 major Gann square. A break from here can take it back to the 590.00 long term swing point and once they get a close above it, you can use it as a short term swing point and look for the 712.25 major swing point and then the 730.00 long term target.

Below are the Nearby Daily chart and the Hourly with the secondary Gann squares for support and resistance for shorter term trades.