Gold & SP 500 Futures Update 10/4/26
Gold
GCZ26
December
From last update,
The market put out another new low for the move coming off of 38.2% at 4700.00 and that keeps the Intermediate trend negative. The rally from the new low is just shy of 38.2% back to the 8/25/26 high at 4452.00 and this will be the key level for the week, failing to get above it keeps the short term trend negative. As we have mentioned before, the long term trend remains positive until 38.2% on the continuation chart is taken out at 3934.00. The key level for the week is the 4495.30 major Gann square.
Use 4452.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target area is 78.6% back to the 6/30/26 low at 4170.00 and the 4122.00 major Gann square. The long term...
All of the closes were below the 4452.00 (38.2%) swing point and it made another new low on the setback from 4700.00, this is 38.2% back to the contract high. While the ONE44 38.2% rule is still looking for a new low on the break from 4700.00, the low this week hit the short term target area of 78.6% back to the 6/30/26 low at 4170.00 and the 4122.00 major Gann square. The key level for the week will be 78.6% at 4170.00. A failure to make a new low in this area can be the start of the next Bull move per the ONE44 78.6% rule. This is why we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the longer term target. Longer term the market remains positive above the 38.2% level at 3934.00 on the continuation chart.
Use 4170.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% the other way at 4648.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule, this is also a major Gann square. Any rally that can't get above 38.2% of the same move at 4372.00 is a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. It still needs to take out 38.2% back to the ATH at 4700.00 to turn the Intermediate trend positive and a run at a new ATH possible.The longer term target area is the 5048.50 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 5097.00. The long term target area is 78.6% of the same move at 5410.00 and the 5452.00 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 3934.00 this is 38.2% on the continuation chart and a major Gann square. The long term trend remains positive above 3934.00, if this level is taken out we will update the long term downside targets.
SP 500 Futures
ESZ26
December
From the last update,
The quick break below the 7610.00 (38.2%) swing point held above 23.6% at 7495.00 and quickly got right back above it, keeping the market very strong. It is now trading the December contract and we have to watch two levels. We always want to watch the 78.6% retracement back to the contract high on the Nearby chart and the actual December chart. On the Nearby chart this level is 7781.00 using the December chart the retracement is 7835.00. This is the hard part when the contracts roll, it can turn down from 7781.00 on the Nearby chart and this will be the key level for the week, however you have to watch the Dec, level at 7835.00.If it were to get up there it could possibly make a new ATH, but would only be 78.6% on the Dec. and a failure to make a new high (Dec. contract high is 7905.00) in the area of a 78.6% retracement can cause a sharp selloff per the ONE44 78.6% rule.
Use 7781.00 as the swing point for the week,
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 8/13/26 high at 7835.00, a failure to ...
As we laid out what can happen when the contracts roll, it made a new high on the Nearby chart, but only hit 78.6% at 7835.00 on the December chart. The setback from there held 23.6% back to the 6/11/26 low at 7700.00 keeping the trend very strong.The rally from there hit 78.6% back to the 9/22/26 high at 7810.00 and this will be the key level for the week. It has already failed to make a new high in December at 78.6% (7835.00) and now it is testing that area with another 78.6% retracement, so it will be a very important level for the week, provided this level holds it can send it 78.6% the other way per the ONE44 78.6% rule. Taking it out can send it to the long term target of the next cluster of major Gann squares at 8240.00.
Use 7810.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, a failure to turn lower from 7810.00 will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when it is closed above, the next two are 7890.75 and 8060.25. The long term target is the next cluster of major Gann squares at 8240.00.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 3/31/26 low at 7616.00. The longer term target is 78.6% back to the same low at 7365.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. The next key support area is 7270.00 to 7229.00, this is 38.2% back to the 3/31/26 low, the 200 day average and a major Gann square, all on the chart.
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