Grains are still up against some key Fibs
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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
For the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines to help with this article, go here.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
Wheat and Corn still have a positive structure below, however they are up against some key retracements. Soybeans are below the long term swing point and the rallies are getting weaker.
The break from 61.8% at 589.00 on 11/1/21 could only take it down to 38.2% at 560.00 on 11/8/21. The longer term target on a break from 61.8% should be 61.8% the other way and this is 541.00. Until it takes out 589.00 this is still the target. Now we also have the 38.2% level saying it should go for new highs for the move and a failure to make the new high should send it to 61.8% of the same move, this again is 541.00.
Today's high hit 78.6% at 586.00 and following this rule we know to look for 78.6% the other way and that it can be the end of the Bull run. This would also point to 541.00. Provided the rally from 38.2% (560.00) makes a new high, look for 78.6% at 612.00 and then new contract highs.
You can find previous levels explained for Corn, Wheat and Soybeans in this article.
Wheat continues to be the strongest of the 3 markets. Last week it fell just short of 78.6% back to the 2012 high. The break from it was only able to get back to 23.6% of the July low, before going for 820.00 again.
Today, it traded above this level and closed close to it. Provided it can get a solid close above it tomorrow look for the long term target of 960.00. Closing right back below 820.00 can send it down to 78.6% the other way and this is 670.00. As always we watch all the retracements on any move and if all it can do is go 38.2% back at 755.00 the short and long term trend remains positive. Any break from 820.00 that can only go 23.6% at 787.00 keeps the trend extremely positive.
The last rally above the long term swing point of 1228.00 could only go back to 23.6% of the contract high, keeping the short term trend very negative. The big spike above the long term swing point on Tuesday could not close above it and as long as this continues to be the case we are looking for 61.8% at 1078.00. Getting back above 1228.00 is positive in the long term trend, however it needs to close above 38.2% (1294.00) back to the contract high to turn the short term trend positive. and then we can start to look for the long term levels above.
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