This is an ongoing series of updates on how the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines work in this market and ALL markets.
The highs on 4/20/22 and 4/23/22 both could not get above 38.2% at 14,400 keeping the short term trend negative and the new followed. It has now had one close below 13,850 and with another one today, look for 78.6% at 13,424, this is also a major Gann square. Failing to hold the 13,424 area should send them back to the area of 13,000 to 12,850, between these levels is 23.6% back to the 2008 low, 38.2% back to the 2020 low and a major Gann square, below here, stay tuned. Provided they manage a close back above 13,850 today, look for a rally back to 38.2% of the recent break, with today's low this is 14,200.
As you can see on the chart below, the break from 38.2% at 14,400 took the market through the 78.6% level at 13,424 and down to the key retracement area of 13,000 to 12,850, between these levels is 23.6% back to the 2008 low, 38.2% back to the 2020 low and a major Gann square, This is the third time down to this area. The first one happened on 2/24/22 and the rally from there took it to 38.2% back to the ATH on 3/3/22. By not getting above 38.2% it kept the short term trend negative and it sent it down to make a slightly lower low, but still in the key support area of 13,000 to 12,850. Whenever it fails to make a new low, or only a slightly lower low after breaking from 38.2%, the next target becomes 61.8% back following the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines. The rally from the 3/15/22 low had a very sharp rally right to 61.8% back at 15,250 on 3/29/22. The target following the ONE44 61.8% rule is to look for 61.8% the other way and this was 13,850. It sat on top of this level for 6 trading day's and the highest it could rally was 38.2% back at 14,400 on 4/20/22. Now the target on a rally from 61.8% at 13,850 would have been to look for 61.8% the other way, however it could only go 38.2% back and this is why we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the longer term target. The break from 14,400 took it back into the key area for the third time and on Friday they had a slight close below it.
Provided they get another close below 12,850, this being 38.2% back to the 2020 low, we would have to look for the next major area of long term retracements and they come in at 10,800 and 10,500. The first is 38.2% back to the 2008 low and the second is 61.8% back to the 2020 low. There are other major Gann squares to watch for support before then at 12,388, 11,942, 11,485 and 11,043. As for the upside, a key thing to watch for is, just as the low on 3/15/22 was slightly lower and then closed back above the key area of 13,000 to 12,850 which led to a sharp rally to 61.8% at 15,250, you will have to watch for the same kind of reaction with a close back above that key area again. Provided they did get that kind of reaction the first target will be 38.2% back to the ATH, this is 14,300 and any rally that fails to get above 23.6% back at 13,750 would be a very negative sign and you can look for new lows again.
This is our latest video on using Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. It deals with the Grain market. Even if you do not trade Grains it is worth watching. All the rules and guidelines work in ALL markets. We also have videos for other markets on our YouTube channel.
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