ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
This is an update to "NASDAQ 100, 38.2% to 38.2%, now what?" We highly recommend that you go back and read all the past posts, so you can see why we are, where we are and all posted ahead of the turns in the trend.
On 3/20/22 we left you with this,
Following this rule after making only a slightly lower low, that was coming off of a 38.2% (14,400) retracement the next long term target is 61.8% at 15,300. It has already had over $1,400 rally after holding 12,880 in just 4 days and it closed at 38.2% (14,400) back to the ATH on Friday. Even though our long term target is 61.8% at 15,300 you still have to watch all the retracements to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target. A break from 14,400 can send it down to retest the lows. With a solid close above 14,400 and the 14,465 major Gann square look for the 61.8% target and by getting above 14,400 the short term trend turns positive and gets back in sync with the long term trend.
Most importantly we have to keep in mind that the low was the combination of 23.6% back to the 2008 low and 38.2% back to the March 2020 low and following the ONE44 Fibonacci rules, a new ATH is the long term target. As we always say you have to watch all the retracements to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target. So, now that the rally from the 3/15/22 low hit the upside target of 61.8% (today's high 15,268) based on already reacting to 38.2% (14,400) we have to bring in the 61.8% rule, this is,
Whenever the market holds 61.8% of a move, look for it to go 61.8% of where it just came from. This usually happens when a market is directionless, or in a consolidation period.
Even with it falling just short of 15,300 the reaction should be the same as if it hit it and that is 61.8% the other way at 13,850, It can still trade above 15,300, but the close is what matters. Watching all the retracements on any break, only getting back to 38.2% of the rally at 14,400 would keep the short and long term trend positive and you can look for new highs for the move. We would like to see a close back below the 200 day average at 15,123 and the 15,043 major Gann square confirm a move lower. With a solid close above 15,300 look for 78.6% of the same move at 15,900.
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