Soybeans and Fibonacci
ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements and Gann squares.
You can get all the rules and guidelines to the Fibonacci retracements on our website.
The Golden rule of the ONE44 Fibonacci rules and guidelines is, " Any market that is going to continue the current trend must hold 38.2%. It is quite amazing how well this rule works in general, but it has been what is holding the Soybeans, Corn and Wheat in a bull market. As we first mentioned in the Fall of 2020 we think this will be a multi year bull run and that 38.2% will let us know if this is going to continue.
Another guideline when using the Fibonacci retracements is that when the 38.2% level is from a very large range as it is in the Soybeans (831.00 to 1480.00) you can see large sweeping moves back and forth that go 61.8% and 78.6%, but still keep the long term target in place.
The first rally from just above 38.2% at 1235.00 back in June went right to 78.6% at 1423.00 on 7/1/21. The long term target on a break from 78.6% is 78.6% the other way, this would be 1280.00, however we watch all the retracements on any move to see just how weak, or strong the market is. The setback from 1423.00 went to 61.8% at 1306.00 on 7/6/21. The 61.8% rule is that any market that holds 61.8% should send it to 61.8% of where it just came from. The rally went beyond 61.8% and retested the 78.6% level at 1423.00. The break from there held 61.8% again at 1306.00 on 8/3/21 and this time it went 61.8% the other way at 1376.00 on 8/17/21. The break from there went to 78.6% of the whole range at 1280.00 on 8/20/21 and this completed the 78.6% target from when it hit 78.6% on 7/1/21.
The long term swing point remains 1235.00, this is 38.2% back of the contract high and low. The wide swings may continue, however as long as it continues to close above the long term swing point the long term target is 1765.00. With a couple solid closes below 1235.00 the long term trend turns negative and we will look for 61.8% at 1065.00.
You can get our daily Gann "Law of Vibration" and Fibonacci charts on Grains for FREE on our website at the top of the page.
Sign up for our Free newsletter here.