SP 500 Futures & Gold Analysis 4/19/26

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets. The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. The second is Fibonacci retracements.

SP 500 Futures  & Gold Analysis

SP 500 Futures

ESM26

From last week,

The huge rally the next day closed above the long term 23.6% level at 6520.00 and then went right to the short term target of 38.2% back to the ATH at 6620.00, it spent five trading days in this area before accelerating again blowing through 61.8% at 6783.00 and then fell just short of the long term target area between 6900.00 (78.6%) and the 6906.00 major Gann square. It did get close enough to 78.6% to bring in the ONE44 78.6% rule target.ONE44 78.6% rule, short version.

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.

On a setback from this area the longer term target is 78.6% of where it just came from on the rally from 6353.25 low on 3/31/26 at 6470.00. The long term target, with a failure to make a new high in this area can be the end of the Bull market for now. It can still trade well above 78.6% at 6900.00 and the 6906.00 major Gann square, but we would not want to see more than one close above it. The key level for the week will be 6900.00 (78.6%). 

Use 6900.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Above it, a failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 7054.00 and the most important is a cluster of major Gann squares at 7229.00.

 Below it,.....Any setback that can't get below the previous major Gann square at 6752.00 keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow.

The less than one day setback from 6900.00 could not even get below the previous major Gann square at 6752.00 overnight on Sunday keeping the trend extremely positive and the close ended up being above 78.6% at 6900.00 and the next day it closed above it again and that ended the idea of a turn lower from this area. It has now gone through the 7054.00 major Gann square and is approaching the Cluster of major Gann squares at 7229.00. The first chart shows the previous cluster at 6142.00 and how it stopped the market for 3 months before turning lower and ended up hitting 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4830.00.

Can we get another big turn lower from this next cluster of major Gann squares is yet to be determined, as always it can have one close above it, but we do not want to see two in a row, or the level is violated and we keep looking for the next major Gann square. Provided there was a setback from this area we will watch the Fibonacci retracements below to see if short/longer term trend gets violated and gives us another reason for the market to go lower. The two key lows to use with the retracements are 3/31/26 and the 4/7/25 low

Use the 7229.00 major Gann square cluster as the swing point for the week and longer term.

Above it, you still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 7229.00, however we don't want to see two higher closes in a row above it. A failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 7389.00 and 7553.00  When and if the 7229.00 Gann square cluster area is taken out we will set a new long term target.

Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 3/31/26 low at 6872.00, this is the level that needs to hold to keep the short term trend positive. The longer term target area is 6711.00 to 6835.00, this is the 200 day average, 61.8% back to the 3/31/26 low and 23.6% back to the 4/7/25 low. Any setback that holds 23.6% back to the 3/31/26 low at 6992.00 keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow. We will get into the long term levels below, if and when the short term trend turns negative.

Gold Analysis

GCM26

From last week,

The one day setback after closing above the 4722.00 (38.2%) swing point held above 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low at 4566.00 On 4/2/26 keeping the short term trend positive along with the long term trend (4135.00, 38.2%). It now has three closes above 4722.00 and this will again be the key level for the week.

Use 4722.00 as the swing point for the week again.

 Below it, the longer term target....Any setback that holds 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low keeps the short term trend extremely positive and a new high can follow (ONE44 38.2% rule).

Monday's lower opening held above 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low at 4607.00 keeping the trend extremely positive and it closed above the 4722.00 swing point for the week and then went on to make a new high. It closed right at 4871.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the week.

Use 4871.00 as the swing point for the week. 

Above it, the short term target area is the 5062.60 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 5082.00. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 5345.00. The long term target after holding 38.2% back to the 2022 low is a new high per the ONE44 38.2% rule.

Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 3/23/26 low at 4619.00, holding this level keeps the short term trend extremely positive and a new high can follow (ONE44 38.2% rule). The longer term target area is the 4310.00 major Gann square and 78.6% of the same move at 4290.00.

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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