SP 500 Futures Update 3/8/25
SP 500 Futures
The chart is key to this analysis.
From last week.
This week's break took the market to the 5850.25 major Gann square. There was an initial bounce from 5915.00, however as we mentioned last week that the market needed to stay below 38.2% at 6080.00 to keep the short term trend negative and that with any new low this level would have to be recalculated. With the new low at 5924.00 on 2/25/25 the new 38.2% was 6018.00, it traded slightly above it, but never closed above and then went on to a new low as would be expected from a 38.2% retracement. The rally Friday from the 5850.25 major Gann square hit 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high at 5969.00 and this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 5969.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target area is 38.2% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5766.00 and the 200 day average at 5752.00. The longer term target area....
The high that happened last Sunday night traded above 5969.00 (38.2%), but never closed above it. The break from it hit the short term target area of 5766.00 (38.2%) and the 200 day average at 5752.00 and it rallied $100 from there. It failed to get even close to the new 38.2% level back to the ATH and it collapsed again and closed below 5766.00 on Thursday. On Friday it traded down through the 5706.00 major Gann square and then closed back above 5766.00 and the 200 day average that is now 5765.00. As always one close below a key level is okay as long as the next day it is right back above it as it just did. The spike down on Friday and the big rally that followed looks a lot like the 8/5/24 low when it traded well below 23.6% back to the 2022 low and then closed above it, what followed was a $600 rally and eventually on to a new high. Holding 5766.00 (38.2%) can have a similar effect. A rally from here can send it to 78.6% back to the ATH, we will also be watching 38.2%, as a failure to get above it can send it quickly lower.
Use 5766.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, Provided it can hold 5766.00 the target is 78.6% back to the 2/19/25 high at 6062.00. Any rally that can't get above the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square and 38.2% of the same move at 5858.00 is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.
Below it, the short term target area is the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. The long term target and long term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5153.50, this is also a major Gann square.
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