ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
Charts are courtesy of Barchart.com
In our last WEAT update on 7/22/22 titled, "WEAT ETF is at a critical level" we left you with this,
The ONE44 61.8% rule says holding 61.8% should send it 61.8% back from where it just came from and this is 10.80, that is the long term target, you will also have to watch 23.6% and 38.2% for resistance. The current trend will not turn positive again until it takes out 38.2%. A failure to hold 7.85 should send it to 78.6% at 6.52.
That day was the low for almost a month, the first rally was stopped by the 8.62 major Gann square and the break from there took it to the previous major Gann square at 7.89 on 8/3/22. It sat above 61.8% at 7.80 for the next few weeks, before closing below it on 8/18/22. We always want to see two consecutive closes through a key level to violate it. The next day was right back above 7.80 and this is where the rally started from.
With the new low, the 61.8% target above, from 61.8% below, is now 10.75 and as we mentioned in the previous update, you have to watch all the retracements regardless of the longer term target. The rally from there was stopped temporarily by the 8.62 major Gann square for a week before going on to 23.6% (8.85) back to the 3/4/22 high, it traded at this level for 6 of 7 days before setting back to 38.2% on 9/19/22 at 8.40. This was a very positive sign to hold this level, as the retracement above was of a much bigger range and should have had a stronger effect. The rally from 8.40 has now taken it through 23.6% at 8.85.
We know the long term target is 10.75 based on the ONE44 61.8% rule, however we will next watch 38.2% at 9.55. A trade up to this level that then closes below the 9.43 major Gann square can cause a quick setback. Once above 9.55, look for the 10.30 major Gann square and then the long term target of 61.8%. To keep the current leg up positive, it should hold 38.2% at 8.62, this is also a major Gann square, so a key area to hold.
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