Weekly Grain/Livestock Update 1/30/25
Overview
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Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.
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Soybeans
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term |  |
1095.00 | 940.00 |
| Intermediate Term |  |
1026.00 | 1095.00 |
| Short Term | |
1026.00 | 1095.00 |
| As of: 1/30/2025, 1:25:45 PM | |||
March
From last week,
The low this week held 38.2% of the current rally at 1019.00, this not only kept the short term trend positive, but sent it to new highs as is expected when holding a 38.2% retracement (ONE44 38.2% rule). It also hit the short term target of 1055.00 and since it went on to a new high it took away the idea of a sharp break happening on a failure to make the new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement. With the market approaching the long term swing point at 1095.00 we will move this week's swing point up as tight as possible and use 23.6% back to the 12/19/24 low at 1045.00.
Use 1045.00 as the swing point for the week.
It held the 23.6% at 1045.00 all week, but there has been no run to new highs yet. Without making a new high all the Above/Below remain the same.
Use 1045.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the key area above is the 1086.50 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the contract high at 1095.00. This is an area that can send this market back to test the lows, however we will watch every retracement on any setback to see just how weak, or strong the market is. Above 1095.00 turns the long term trend positive and we will look for 61.8% of the same move at 1088.25, this is also a major Gann square.
Below it, the long term target area is the 981.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 12/19/24 low at 975.00. The short term target is 38.2% of the same move at 1027.00, holding this level keeps the short term trend positive and new highs can quickly follow.
May
From last week,
This week held the 1031.00 major Gann square, that was also 38.2% back to the 12/19/24 low and it went on to a new high as expected after holding a 38.2% retracement (ONE44 38.2% rule). It also hit the bottom of the 1083.75/1092.00 target area. The combination of 23.6% and 38.2% at 1092.00 is an area that can send this market back to test the lows, so it will be the key level for next week.
Use 1092.00 as the swing point for the week.
The combination of longer term retracements above at 1092.00 still could send this market back to test the low. The setback so far is holding 23.6% back to the 12/19/24 low at 1057.00 which is a very strong sign, this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 1057.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, provided this is all it can setback after getting into the 1083.75/1092.00 target area, look for a quick rally to a new high. You will still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 1092.00 and then a close below the 1083.75 major Gann square, doing this can cause a sharp selloff. Above 1092.00 turns the Intermediate trend turns positive and the long term target area is 61.8% back to the contract high at 1174.00 and the 1185.50 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target area is 38.2% at 1037.00 and the 1031.00 major Gann square. Holding this area keeps the short term trend positive and you can look for a new high from it. The long term target area is 78.6% at 984.50 and the 977.75 major Gann square.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Soybean Meal
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
335.00 | 290.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
315.00 | 290.00 |
| Short Term | |
308.00 | 335.00 |
| As of: 1/30/2025, 1:29:43 PM | |||
March
From last week,
This week's rally went right to 78.6% the other way at 315.50 to complete the 78.6% to 78.6% target based on the ONE44 78.6% rule.
When a market does react to 78.6% it usually creates wide swings that go through all the other retracements, this either happens in very large trading ranges or very small, it is also the level hit most often when the market is reacting from 23.6% and 38.2% and fails to make the new high/low. This is where a lot of Bull runs start and end.
The 315.50 can send this market 78.6% back the other way again, so it will be the key level for this week.
Use 315.50 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the long term target area is the 300.80 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 1/16/25 low at 299.00. Any setback
Staying true to the ONE44 78.6% rule, the market had another 78.6% to 78.6% move, this time down to 299.00 and this will be the key level for the next week. This is the fourth 78.6% retracement in under a month. It looks like it is building a nice base for another run higher in the longer term. We will be looking for the long term swing point to start.
Use 299.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/23/25 high at 314.50. The long term target is the long term swing point at 335.00, this is 38.2% back to the contract high.
Below it, a failure to turn back up from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next one is 277.00.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Soybean Oil
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
50.50 | 39.40 |
| Intermediate Term | |
46.50 | 39.52 |
| Short Term | |
44.20 | 47.50 |
| As of: 1/30/2025, 1:32:25 PM | |||
March
From last week,
The setback this week held 38.2% at 44.25, holding this area can send this market quickly higher, so this level will be key for the next week.
Use 44.25 as the swing point for the week.
Oil had a small range this week and all of it held 38.2% at 44.25. This will again be the key level for next week. With no new high, or low all the Above/Below remain the same.
Use 44.25 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 47.54, this is a major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 11/11/24 high. The long term target area is the 51.15 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 51.85.
Below it, look for it to complete the 78.6% (47.54) to 78.6% level at 41.20, per the ONE44 78.6% rule.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Corn
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
472.00 | 512.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
458.00 | 512.00 |
| Short Term | |
548.00 | 512.00 |
| As of: 1/30/2025, 1:34:39 PM | |||
March
From last week,
It never got back below the long term swing point at 472.00 and the rally continued. The Above remains the same for this week. We will bring in the 23.6% retracement back to the 8/26/24 low at 473.00 for the key level for this week. There is also the 475.00 major Gann square for added support.
Use 473.00 as the swing point for the week.
This week's low held above the 473.00 swing point for the week and it went on to new high keeping the trend very strong. With the new high the 23.6% level moves up to the 475.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 475.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target area is 61.8% back to the contract high at 508.00 and the 512.25 major Gann square. Keep in mind a setback from a 61.8% level can send this market 61.8% the other way per the ONE44 61.8% rule, this level is yet to be determined. The long term target area is 78.6% back to the contract high at 538.00 and the 545.00 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 8/26/24 low at 461.50, this is the long term swing point now, holding this area can send it back to a new high. The longer term target is the area of the 440.50 major Gann square and 61.8% to the same low at 439.00.
May
From last week,
Today's high was two ticks shy of the 504.75 major Gann square. In the area of that square and 61.8% at 512.00 is also a 23.6% retracement on the continuation chart, so this is a key area that could send this market back to test the lows, however as always we will watch all the retracements on any setback to see just how weak, or strong this market is. The tightest retracement is 23.6% back to the 8/26/24 low at 483.00, this will be the key level for the next week.
Use 483.00 as the swing point for the week.
May held above the 483.00 swing point and made a new high for this leg up. It is still in the area that can cause a bigger setback with 512.00 being a 61.8% retracement. For now we will use the tightest retracement of 23.6% at 486.00 for the key level for next week.
Use 486.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, you still have to watch for a trade up to, or above 512.00 and a close below the 504.75 major Gann square, as this can cause a quick selloff. The short term target is 539.25, this is a major Gann square and 78.6% back to the contract high. The long term target is 571.75, this is 38.2% on the continuation chart and a major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 8/26/24 low at 472.00, this is now the long term swing point, holding it can send quickly to a new high. With it being close to the 61.8% level at 512.00 the longer term target will be 61.8% the other way at 450.00 per the ONE44 61.8% rule.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Wheat
| Trend | Swing Point | Target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Term | |
670.00 | 464.00 |
| Intermediate Term | |
610.00 | 495.50 |
| Short Term | |
570.00 | 495.50 |
| As of: 1/30/2025, 1:38:30 PM | |||
March
From last week,
It had its first positive sign in a long time by getting above the 554.00 swing point for the week, however it failed to get above the first test of strength at 570.00 and that can send it back to retest the low. Looking for any positive sign on this setback we will be watching 38.2% back to the low at 551.00, provided it can hold this area the rally can continue, so this will be the key level for this week.
Use 551.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low. A failure to turn....
Above it, look for 570.00, this is 38.2% back to the 10/3/24 high, taking it out would turn the short term trend positive. The long term...
From 1/28/25 Special Update,
This brings us to Wheat, after failing to get above 38.2% at 570.00 on 1/22/25 a new low was the longer term target, however it held the short term target of 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low at 534.00. Like Corn, a failure to make a new low in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next bull move, or at least send it 78.6% of where it just came from. Provided the 534.00 level holds, the first target is 559.00 (78.6%) and we will now see if this is the bottom that turns into a longer term low, just like it did in Corn. When and if this market takes out 559.00 we will then watch the retracements below to see if the trend can continue as it did in both Soybeans and Corn. The short term target for May is 572.00 (78.6%).
The setback did not hold 38.2%, however it did fail to make a new low at a 78.6% level (534.00) and following the ONE44 78.6% rule we know that this is where a lot of Bull runs start (and end). It hit the 78.6% target of 559.00 on Wednesday and today it hit the 38.2% level at 570.00 and this can send it back to test the low, so this will be the key level for the next week. We will again look for another sign that the rally will continue even with it hitting 570.00, so 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 556.00, holding 38.2% of a smaller move after hitting 38.2% of a much bigger range would be a very good sign.
Use 570.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, turns the short term trend positive and the short term target is the 585.75 major Gann square. The long term target area on a rally from here is 78.6% back to the 10/2/24 high at 616.00 and 38.2% back to the 5/28/24 high at 625.00, this is also the long term swing point.
Below it, we usually don't like to use a 38.2% level in a tight range, but in this case holding it would be a very positive sign. The short term target is 555.00. The long term target is 78.6% at 540.00. A failure to turn higher from there will give us only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next two are 494.50 and 464.25.
May
From last week,
Like March, it got above its swing point for the week, but failed to get above the first real test at the 580.25 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 10/2/24 high at 582.00. We will be looking for the first sign that a rally can continue, so we will use 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 563.00 as the key level for this week.
Use 563.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, look for 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low at 546.00. A failure to... Note, we did have the level as 564.00 which was wrong, however that is why we have the charts with the analysis, so could have seen that the last two numbers were inverted.
May also didn't hold 38.2% at 563.00, however it failed to make a new low at a 78.6% level (546.00). The rally from it took it up to the 580.25 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 10/2/24 high, so this is the key level for the next week. The positive side is that the failure to make a new low also led to the market making a higher high this week. A setback from 580.25 could send this market back to test the low, so we will again watch the 38.2% level, holding it would be a very strong sign.
Use 580.25 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, you still have to watch 23.6% back to the contract high at 593.00, this will be the short term target, this level can send it back to test the lows. The long term target area is 38.2% of the same move at 628.00 (long term swing point) and the 634.75 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 565.00, holding this would be a very strong sign since it is coming off from a 38.2% level of a much bigger range. The long term target is 78.6% of the same move at 547.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next two are 522.75 and 493.50.
Law of Vibration chart for short term support and resistance
Livestock
Cattle
April
From last week,
No sign of a setback here either, as it stayed above the 197.13 major Gann square and swing point all week and it will be key for the next week again. The Above remains the same.
Use 197.13 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 203.88 and 210.97.
Tuesday it closed above the 203.88 major Gann square and that made it the swing point, today's close is well below it. The break is just shy of 23.6% at 200.35 and this will be the key level for next week. After such a big rally the first place to check this market will be 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low at 195.50, this is now the long term swing point.
Use 200.35 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, holding 23.6% at 200.35 would be a strong sign and it can go right back to the highs and more, the short term target is the 210.97 major Gann square. Any rally that fails to get back above the 203.88 major Gann square is a negative sign and new lows can follow.
Below it, the key test of this Bull run will be 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low at 195.50, holding it keeps the long term trend positive. The long term target is 61.8% of the same move at 188.00.
Feeder Cattle
March
From last week,
There was no follow through on the closes below the 268.71 major Gann square and swing point for the week, this level will be key for the next week again. The Above remains the same.
Use 268.71 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 276.63 and 285.11.
This week it had one close above the 276.63 major Gann square and that made it the swing point for the week, the next day closed right back below it and this will be the key level for the week.
Use 276.63 as the swing point for the week.
Above it there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 285.11 and 293.41.
Below it, the short term target is 23.6% back to the 9/9/24 low at 266.44, holding this keeps the trend extremely positive and new highs can quickly follow. The long term target is also the long term swing point, this 38.2% back to the same low at 258.00.
Lean Hogs
April
From last week,
After holding 38.2% on 1/7/25 the rally failed to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement (91.60) and following the ONE44 78.6% rule it hit the first target of 78.6% the other way at 86.07, so this will be the key level for next week. Failing to hold 86.07 can bring in the second part of the ONE44 78.6% rule and that is the end of the Bull run for now.
Use 86.07 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for 78.6% the other way at 90.39 per the ONE44 78.6% rule, this is also a major Gann square. The long term....
The rally from 86.07 (78.6%) hit 78.6% at 90.39 and more, it has yet to make a new high for the year, so the 90.39 major Gann square will be key for this week.
Use 90.39 as the swing point for the week.
Above it,look for the next major Gann square at 95.35. The longer term target is 61.8% on the continuation chart at 97.25.
Below it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 1/8/25 low at 86.07, this is also a major Gann square. Since they already reacted to 38.2% at 85.50 the long term target area is the 81.47 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the 8/13/24 low at 80.60.
