Weekly Grain/Livestock Update 10/17/24

Weekly Grain/Livestock Update 10/17/24
Photo by Christophe Maertens / Unsplash

Overview

From the 10/3/24 Update,

The current rallies are showing signs of life in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat, however they have all run into key retracements above. In Soybeans it is a 23.6% retracement, in Corn it is a combination of 23.6% and 38.2% and in Wheat it is 38.2%. We will be watching the 38.2% levels on any setback to see if the trends will continue.


Soybeans

It traded at 1055.00 all week. It was unable to get a couple solid closes above it and there was no follow through on the downside. A setback from 1055.00 can still send this market to a new low, or a good test of it, so we will be watching the 78.6% level as a target. The 38.2% level below will be key to the rally continuing, just as it was at 1002.00.


Corn

This week's rally took it to the short term target of 429.00 (23.6%/38.2%), it has one close above it and it needs another to turn the intermediate trend positive. A setback back from here can send it to a new low, or a good test of it. We will now watch 38.2% below to see if the short term trend can remain positive.


Wheat

This week's rally hit the short term target of 612.00 and it has one close above it, but today closed right back below it, this is the level that needs to come out to turn the Intermediate trend positive. We will be watching the 38.2% level on any setback to see if the short term uptrend can continue, just like it did at 566.75 on 9/19/24.


What we are seeing right now in the Grains illustrates the importance of understanding the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. By knowing the potential from a certain retracement it will give you guidance as to what is possible and what changes that. We have said before that a retracement from a bigger range ($1.00 to $2.00) should have precedence over a smaller range (30 to 50 cents), however this is also why we say, "we watch every retracement on all moves to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the longer term target."


When the Grains ran into the longer term retracements above, Soybeans 23.6%, Corn 23.6%/38.2% and Wheat 38.2% we know that to keep that trend intact (down/negative) it should go make a new low, but we are watching the retracements on this setback. Soybeans are at 78.6% of the rally, Corn is just above 78.6% and Wheat is the one holding 38.2% for now. A couple things to keep in mind are, failing to make a new low after hitting a key retracement above that comes in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull move and holding 38.2% of a smaller move after hitting 38.2% of a much larger range above would be a strong sign for the market.


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Being this is a weekly update we give all the key levels to watch for the week using Fibonacci retracements and Major Gann squares. We set up scenarios to look for when a level holds, or fails based on these methods, so it is very important to know for yourself how to use them following the ONE44 rules and guidelines. The best way to get a better understanding of these methods is to read all the posts (even if not on Grains) and watch our YouTube videos, as we explain why we think what we think based on the rules and guidelines. It is also important to view all the charts, as they have the key levels marked on them, if there are extended moves.

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