SP 500 Futures Analysis and New Fibonacci Video

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SP 500 Futures

The chart below is key to this analysis.

ESZ24
From last week,

After holding 23.6% at 5800.00 the rally failed to make the new high at a 78.6% retracement of 5900.00 and this did end the rally for right now. The break from 5900.00 hit the first target at 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5735.00, but it didn't get down to the 5706.00 major Gann square, so this area will be key for the next week.

Use 5735.00 as the swing point for the week

Above it, The short term target is 78.6% back to the 10/17/24 high at 5884.50. The long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. Before then there is one major Gann square to use as a target and then as the swing point when closed above at 5993.00

Below it, you will still have to watch for a trade down to the 5706.00 major Gann square and then a close back above 5735.00, as this can cause a very sharp rally back to the highs....

We know the election drove this market to new highs, however it is what it did before then, that is so important. By holding the 23.6% level back to the 8/5/24 low at 5735.00 we should be looking for new highs for the move. We did watch the 78.6% level above at 5884.00, but there was no turn lower from it and it now has two closes above the 5993.00 major Gann square and this will be key for the next week. Going back a little further this market has continued to hold the 38.2% and 23.6% retracement on each of the previous lows to keep the trend positive. The first was on 8/5/24 when it hit 23.6% (5200.00) back to the 2022 low and 38.2% (5115.00) back to the 10/27/23 low to keep the long term trend positive and new highs followed. The second low on 9/6/24 had one close below 38.2% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5465.00 and the next day it was right back above it and then went on to a new high.

Here are the short versions of the 38.2% and 23.6% retracements rules,

The 38.2% level is the single most important retracement and is the level we use for the "Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement.

Extremely strong/weak markets will only go back 23.6%. This is Typically a runaway market.

Use 5993.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. This is a cluster of major Gann squares and the area that a possible longer term top can come from. A failure to turn lower from this area gives us only major Gann squares above to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next one is 6290.75.

Below it, the short term target is the area of the previous major Gann square at 5850.75 and 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5820.00. The next support is 38.2% of the same move at 5685.00. The first long term support area is 5440.00 to 5414.00, this is 23.6% back to the 2022 low, a major Gann square and the 200 day average.

This is our latest video on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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