ESM20

The rally so far from the 2174.00 low has only been able to get up to 38.2% of the break at 2641.00, this is the long term swing point and until it can get a solid close above it the outlook is negative. A break from 38.2% should send them to new lows, but you always have to watch the retracements on the way down to see if anything is changing. With a new low look for 2100.00 this is 38.2% of all-time high and zero and below this is 1700.00, this is 61.8% back to the 2009 low. This next scenario will be key to watch for. Not making a new low on the break from 2641.00 is a sign that things are changing and since they already reacted from the 38.2% level you should look for 61.8% at 2927.00 on the next move up. This can come from getting down to 78.6% of the current rally at 2275.00, or the major Gann square of 2265.00. The failure to make a new low, or high on a retest of the extreme low/high is where the big moves come from and this could be one of those. The target on a close above 2641.00 will be 2927.00 as well.

ESM20 daily